Northeast United - Kerala Blasters prediction 18 October 2026

Northeast United vs Kerala Blasters prediction for the Super League match on Oct 18, 2026. Based on the stats, a draw is the most likely outcome at 38%, with Northeast United at 34% and Kerala Blasters at 28% win probability.

Team Form

Northeast United come into this game with a mixed recent record: W-W-W-L-L in their last five league outings. They beat Mohammedan SC 2–0 and Chennaiyin FC 4–1 at home, and won 3–2 at Inter Kashi, but then lost 0–2 to FC Goa and 0–1 to Mohun Bagan Super Giants — both at home. That late dip in home form is a concern.

Kerala Blasters, on the other hand, are in magnificent shape with five straight wins: 2–0 at Inter Kashi, 2–1 v FC Goa, 3–1 v Mohammedan SC, 2–1 v Odisha FC, and 2–0 v Jamshedpur. They have scored in every match and kept two clean sheets.

Head-to-Head Record

Historically, Kerala Blasters hold the edge. In 21 previous meetings, Northeast United have 2 wins, Kerala Blasters 7, and 12 draws. The last five encounters: 1–1 (Apr 2026), 0–0 (Jan 2025), 1–1 (Oct 2023), 2–0 to Kerala Blasters (Jan 2023), and 0–3 to Kerala Blasters (Nov 2022). Kerala Blasters are unbeaten in those five, with three wins and two draws.

League Table Positions

In the overall standings, Kerala Blasters sit 7th with 17 points from 13 games, while Northeast United are 8th with 16 points — just one point separates them. At home, Northeast United rank 4th (12 points from 8 games: 4 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses). Kerala Blasters’ away record: 4 points from 4 away games, and they rank 3rd in the home table with 13 points from 9 home matches, meaning most of their points come at home. The teams are nearly level, though Kerala Blasters’ recent away win at Inter Kashi hints at improving road form.

Win Probability: Northeast United or Kerala Blasters?

Using the inverse of the available odds (home 2.25, draw 2.20, away 3.075), then removing the bookmaker margin and adjusting for recent form and head-to-head, we get the following probabilities:

• Northeast United win – 34%
• Draw – 38%
• Kerala Blasters win – 28%

The total equals 100%. A draw has emerged as the most probable result on paper, but Northeast United have a slight edge over Kerala Blasters in the win market. The visitors’ five-match winning streak and dominant H2H record, however, push their chances close to 30%.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see a very tight contest: Northeast United to win at 2.25, the draw at 2.20, and Kerala Blasters to win at 3.05–3.10. The odds reflect the expectation of a low-scoring, cagey affair. Based on the stats — particularly Kerala Blasters’ flawless recent form and Northeast United’s two consecutive home defeats — the most likely outcome is a draw. A 1–1 scoreline, which has occurred in three of the last five H2H meetings, fits all the numbers.