Kilia Kiel - TSV Nordmark Satrup prediction 20 October 2026

The Kilia Kiel vs TSV Nordmark Satrup prediction points towards a comfortable home victory in this German Oberliga clash on Oct 20, 2026 at 18:30. Based on the data, Kilia Kiel has a 76% chance of winning, making them the clear favorite over a struggling Satrup side.

Team Form

Kilia Kiel comes into this match in excellent shape, having won four of their last five matches. They defeated Kaltenkirchener Turnerschaft 2-1, Inter Turkspor Kiel 2-1, Oldenburger SV 6-1, and Kaltenkirchener Turnerschaft again 1-0. Their only recent slip was a 1-0 loss to TSB Flensburg. That’s 12 goals scored in five games.

TSV Nordmark Satrup is in terrible form. They’ve lost four of their last five, conceding heavily. Recent results include a 4-0 loss to TSB Flensburg, a 3-1 home loss to Holstein Kiel II, a 3-1 home loss to Oldenburger SV, and a 6-0 thrashing by Holstein Kiel II. They managed just one win, 2-1 over VfR Neumunster. Only 3 goals scored in those five matches tells the story.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record shows 0 wins for Kilia Kiel, 0 draws, and 0 wins for TSV Nordmark Satrup. With no history between these sides, the form and table data carry all the weight in this prediction.

League Table Positions

Kilia Kiel sits 3rd in the Oberliga with 24 points from 12 games (7 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses). They’ve scored 32 and conceded 19. Their home record is unbeaten: 3 wins and 2 draws from 5 games, with 15 goals for and 10 against. TSV Nordmark Satrup is down in 12th place with just 11 points from 12 matches (3 wins, 2 draws, 7 losses). They’ve scored only 14 and conceded 27. Away from home they have been poor, ranked 8th in the away table, picking up just one win in five on the road and losing heavily. The 13-point gap and major defensive instability on Satrup’s side make the gulf in class obvious.

Win Probability: Kilia Kiel or TSV Nordmark Satrup?

The win probability for this match uses the odds as a base and adjusts for recent form and league positions. The bookmaker odds of 1.26 for a Kilia Kiel win, 5.00 for the draw, and 7.60 for a TSV Nordmark Satrup win imply probabilities of roughly 79%, 20%, and 13% before removing the margin. After normalizing to a 100% total and factoring in Kilia Kiel’s unbeaten home record and Satrup’s losing streak, the calculated outcome chances are:

• Kilia Kiel win: 76%
• Draw: 16%
• TSV Nordmark Satrup win: 8%

Kilia Kiel is the overwhelming favorite. A draw is the only realistic alternative if the visitors can park the bus, but Satrup’s away form suggests they will leak goals.

Odds & Match Prediction

The match odds are: home win at 1.26, draw at 5.00, away win at 7.60. Bookmakers see Kilia Kiel as a very strong favorite, and the stats back that. Kilia Kiel are scoring freely at home and have lost just twice all season, while TSV Nordmark Satrup have the second-worst defensive record in the league. Our prediction is a comfortable win for Kilia Kiel. The home side should have too much firepower, and with Satrup conceding 3+ goals in three of their last four outings, the total goals could easily go over 2.5.