Marines Gisenyi - Kiyovu Sports prediction 10 October 2026

Looking for a Marines Gisenyi vs Kiyovu Sports prediction? This National League clash takes place on October 10, 2026, at 14:00, and based on bookmakers' odds and recent form, Marines Gisenyi enters as the slight favorite with a 42% chance to win. We break down all the key stats — from team form and head-to-head record to league table positions and odds — to help you understand where the value lies.

Team Form

Marines Gisenyi

Recent results have been mixed for the home side. In their last five matches they recorded a 2–0 win over AS Kigali, a 1–1 draw with Musanze, but suffered defeats to APR (4–2), Etincelles (2–3), and Rayon Sports (2–1). Their home form sequence reads L–W–D–L–L, indicating inconsistency in front of their own fans.

Kiyovu Sports

The visitors have struggled on the road. Their last five away results show a 1–0 win at Bugesera, two goalless draws against Rayon Sports and Police FC Rwanda, and two 1–0 losses at Musanze and Gorilla FC. That run — W–L–L–D–D — highlights a lack of firepower away from home, scoring just once in four of those games.

Head-to-Head Record

Across 25 previous meetings, Marines Gisenyi has 10 wins, Kiyovu Sports has 7, and 8 have ended in draws. Looking at the last five encounters:

• Mar 10, 2026 (Kiyovu Sports 1–2 Marines Gisenyi)
• Feb 25, 2026 (Kiyovu Sports 0–0 Marines Gisenyi)
• Dec 14, 2025 (Marines Gisenyi 1–0 Kiyovu Sports)
• Mar 7, 2025 (Kiyovu Sports 2–1 Marines Gisenyi)
• Oct 20, 2024 (Marines Gisenyi 4–2 Kiyovu Sports)

When playing at home, Marines Gisenyi has generally had the upper hand, most recently a 1–0 victory in December 2025.

League Table Positions

In the Rwanda National League standings, Marines Gisenyi sits 7th with 3 points from 2 matches (1 win, 1 loss, goal difference 4:4). Kiyovu Sports is 11th, also on 3 points but from 3 games (1 win, 2 losses, goal difference 1:2). The table shows both sides are closely matched in points, though Kiyovu has played one game more and has a weaker goal differential. Home and away splits confirm Marines Gisenyi has been solid at home (1 win in 1 game), while Kiyovu’s only away points so far are draws.

Win Probability: Marines Gisenyi or Kiyovu Sports?

Based on odds, form, head-to-head history, and league positions, we calculate the following win probabilities:

• Marines Gisenyi win: 42%
• Draw: 30%
• Kiyovu Sports win: 28%

The probabilities are derived from the implied odds of two bookmakers (home win around 2.22–2.25), adjusted for the bookmaker margin and then fine-tuned using recent team form and H2H data. Marines Gisenyi’s home advantage and slightly better league position give them the edge, but their recent form (two losses in the last three at home) prevents a bigger probability. Kiyovu’s inability to score consistently away also reduces their chances, making the draw a real possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer the following 1X2 odds for the match:

• Marines Gisenyi: 2.25 / 2.22
• Draw: 2.88 / 2.92
• Kiyovu Sports: 3.10 / 3.05

The odds reflect a market expectation that aligns with our probability assessment — the hosts are the most likely winner, but it is far from a certainty. Based on the stats, a low-scoring affair is plausible; indeed, four of Kiyovu’s last five away games produced under 2.5 total goals. Our final prediction: Marines Gisenyi has the highest chance to take all three points, but the draw offers decent value given both sides’ recent struggles to dominate matches.