Kolkheti Poti - Samtredia prediction 16 September 2026

The Erovnuli 2 clash between Kolkheti Poti and Samtredia takes place on Sep 16, 2026, at 13:00 local time. Our Kolkheti Poti vs Samtredia prediction reveals a closely matched encounter, with Samtredia holding a 32% win probability, Kolkheti Poti at 30%, and a draw at 38% — making a stalemate the most likely result.

Team Form

Kolkheti Poti's recent form has been inconsistent, with one win, three draws, and one loss in their last five matches (D-W-D-L-D). They drew 1-1 at Sioni Bolnisi, beat Merani Martvili 2-0 at home, drew 1-1 with Aragvi Dusheti, lost 3-2 at Gareji, and drew 1-1 with Telavi at home.

Samtredia, on the other hand, is flying high with five straight victories (W-W-W-W-W). They thrashed Gareji 6-1 at home, won 3-0 at Telavi, defeated FC Iberia 1999 2-0 in the Georgian Cup, beat FC Odishi 1919 Lazika Zugdidi 3-0 at home, and won 1-0 at Shturmi.

Head-to-Head Record

In four previous meetings, Kolkheti Poti have never beaten Samtredia (0 wins). The head-to-head record stands at three draws and one Samtredia victory. The most recent encounter on June 13, 2026, ended in a 2-2 draw at Samtredia. Earlier this season, Samtredia won 3-1 at Kolkheti Poti on April 22, 2026. The two matches in 2024 both ended 0-0 and 1-1.

League Table Positions

There is a significant gap in the Erovnuli 2 standings. Samtredia sit 5th with 34 points (10 wins, 4 draws, 11 losses; goal difference 43–39), while Kolkheti Poti are bottom-ranked 10th with just 24 points (5 wins, 9 draws, 11 losses; goal difference 32–32). However, at home, Kolkheti Poti are a tougher nut to crack: their home record is 4 wins, 7 draws, and only 2 losses in 13 games (21 goals scored, 11 conceded). Samtredia’s away form is mixed: 4 wins, 1 draw, and 8 losses, with 21 goals scored and 24 conceded.

Win Probability: Kolkheti Poti or Samtredia?

Based on odds from three bookmakers, the average implied probabilities (after removing the margin) are: Kolkheti Poti win 35.6%, draw 33.4%, Samtredia win 31.0%. Adjusting these figures for recent form, head-to‑head history, and home/away stats, we calculate the actual probabilities as follows:

• Kolkheti Poti: 30% chance
• Draw: 38% chance
• Samtredia: 32% chance

Samtredia’s perfect five-match winning streak and unbeaten H2H record give them a slight edge over the struggling hosts, but Kolkheti Poti’s strong home resilience (only 2 home losses) makes a draw the most probable single outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ average odds for the 1X2 market are: Home win 2.51, Draw 2.68, Away win 2.89. This suggests that the market initially sees Kolkheti Poti as a marginal favorite, likely due to home advantage. However, taking into account the stats, our model points to a draw as the best value. Samtredia are in irresistible form and will be confident, but Kolkheti Poti rarely lose at home. Our prediction: a tight contest, with a draw or a narrow Samtredia victory being the two likeliest scenarios.