Moss - Kongsvinger prediction 5 October 2026

The Moss vs Kongsvinger prediction for this 1 Division clash on October 5, 2026, at 18:00, strongly favors the away side. Our analysis gives Kongsvinger a 55% win probability, with Moss at 20% and the draw at 25%. The Norwegian second-tier match sees third-placed Kongsvinger travel to a Moss side struggling for consistency.

Team Form

Moss Recent Results

Moss have been inconsistent, with a form line of D, W, L, W, L in their last five outings. They drew 1-1 at Grorud in the Cup, beat Sandnes Ulf 2-1 away, lost 1-4 at home to Haugesund, won 3-2 at Stabaek, and lost 1-2 at home to Strommen. That's two wins, one draw, and two defeats, with eight goals scored and ten conceded.

Kongsvinger Recent Results

Kongsvinger are in excellent shape, unbeaten in five (W, W, D, W, D). They thrashed Hodd 5-1 at home, edged Eidsvold Turn 3-2 in the Cup, drew 1-1 at Egersund, demolished Raufoss 9-1, and played out a 4-4 thriller with Lyn. They've netted 22 goals in those five games, conceding only nine.

Head-to-Head Record

The historical record heavily favours Kongsvinger. In 11 meetings, Kongsvinger have won 8, Moss 3, and there have been no draws. The last five encounters saw Kongsvinger win three times, including a 6-0 home win in April 2025 and a 4-2 away victory in October 2025. Moss's last win was a 3-2 home success in December 2024.

League Table Positions

Kongsvinger sit 3rd in the 1 Division with 50 points from 23 matches (15 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses). They have scored 68 goals and conceded 35. Moss are not in the top 12 overall, but their away record places them 8th in the away standings with 15 points from 12 games (5 wins, 7 losses). At home, Moss have struggled recently, losing their last two home league matches.

Win Probability: Moss or Kongsvinger?

Based on the odds, team form, head-to-head record, and league positions, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Moss 20%, Draw 25%, Kongsvinger 55%. The bookmakers' odds imply a similar distribution, but Kongsvinger's superior form and dominant H2H record (8 wins, no draws) push their chances even higher. Moss's home advantage is offset by their poor recent home results and Kongsvinger's strong away form (6 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses). Therefore, Kongsvinger are the clear favourites to take all three points.

Betting Tips

• Kongsvinger to win – The away side's 55% probability and odds as low as 1.55 make this the standout pick.
• Over 2.5 goals – All of Kongsvinger's last five matches and four of Moss's last five have seen over 2.5 goals, suggesting a high-scoring affair.
• No draw – The head-to-head record shows 0 draws in 11 meetings, and both teams' recent form points to a result.

Moss vs Kongsvinger Prediction: Odds & Final Verdict

Bookmakers have Kongsvinger as the favourite, with best odds for an away win as low as 1.55. A Moss victory is priced between 3.30 and 4.12, while the draw sits around 2.90–3.10. These odds reflect the gulf in quality and form. Our Moss vs Kongsvinger prediction is an away win for Kongsvinger, given their 55% win probability and the statistical evidence. The match will be officiated by referee A. Bodding.