Korona Kielce - Rakow Czestochowa prediction 19 September 2026

The Korona Kielce vs Rakow Czestochowa prediction for this Ekstraklasa match on Sep 19 at 12:45 points to a tight contest. Based on our win probability analysis, Korona Kielce has a 42% chance of winning, the draw is at 28%, and Rakow Czestochowa has a 30% chance.

Team Form

Korona Kielce come into this match with strong recent form, recording three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five outings (W, W, D, W, L). Their most recent result was a 0-2 home defeat to Gornik Zabrze on Sep 15. Before that, they secured away victories against Slask Wroclaw (1-2) and Wisla Plock (0-2), and a cup win at Widzew Lodz (0-1).

Rakow Czestochowa's form is a concern, with four losses and just one win in their last five matches (L, L, L, W, L). They suffered a 2-3 home loss to Zaglebie Lubin on Sep 15, and have also lost to Lech Poznan (1-0), Gornik Zabrze (1-2), and Jagiellonia Bialystok (2-5) in recent weeks. Their sole victory was a 2-1 home win against Motor Lublin.

Head-to-Head Record

Rakow Czestochowa hold the advantage in the head-to-head record with 5 wins to Korona Kielce's 2, alongside 3 draws. The last meeting on May 08 saw Rakow Czestochowa win 2-0 at home. The most recent clash at Stadion Miejski (Kielce) was on Nov 09, 2025, where Rakow Czestochowa secured a convincing 4-1 victory. Korona Kielce's last home win against this opponent was back in the 2023 season.

League Table Positions

Korona Kielce sit 9th in the Ekstraklasa table with 12 points from 8 matches (3 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses). They have scored 9 goals and conceded 8. Rakow Czestochowa's league position is not available in the current standings data, which lists only the top 12 teams. However, Korona Kielce's away form is notably strong, ranked 2nd in the league with 9 points from 4 away games, though they are the home side for this fixture.

Win Probability: Korona Kielce or Rakow Czestochowa?

We have calculated the outcome probabilities based on available odds, recent form, and the head-to-head record. The average bookmaker odds imply a home win probability of around 45%, a draw at 28%, and an away win at 27% after removing the margin. We have adjusted these figures to account for Korona Kielce's superior recent form and Rakow Czestochowa's poor run of results. The final probabilities are: Korona Kielce win 42%, draw 28%, Rakow Czestochowa win 30%. Korona Kielce enters the match as the more likely winner, primarily due to their momentum, despite Rakow's historical dominance in this fixture.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as a competitive match. The available 1X2 odds range from 2.00 to 2.20 for a Korona Kielce home win, with draw odds between 2.20 and 3.63, and Rakow Czestochowa away win odds from 3.25 to 3.75. Based on the stats, Korona Kielce's strong form makes them a slight favorite, but Rakow Czestochowa's superior head-to-head record cannot be ignored. The value may lie in the draw market given the contrasting form and history between the sides.