Kotwica Kolobrzeg - Pogon Szczecin II prediction 11 October 2026

Our Kotwica Kolobrzeg vs Pogon Szczecin II prediction for this IV Liga match on Oct 11 at 13:00 assesses the win probability and betting tips. Based on the odds and team form, Kotwica Kolobrzeg enters as the favorite with a 42% chance of winning.

Team Form

Kotwica Kolobrzeg's recent form shows three wins and two losses in their last five matches (W, L, W, W, L). At home, they secured a 3-1 victory against Gwardia Koszalin on Sep 27 and a 3-0 win over Sparta Gryfice on Aug 15. Their away form includes a 4-1 win at Chemik Police but a 1-0 loss at Arkonia Szczecin.

Pogon Szczecin II also has three wins and two losses in their last five (W, W, L, L, W). They have been dominant at home, scoring 6-0 against GKS Manowo on Oct 3 and 7-0 against Iskierka Szczecin on Sep 19. However, their away form is a concern, with 4-0 defeats at both KP Blekitni Stargard Szczecinski II and Swit Szczecin II.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Kotwica Kolobrzeg. In 8 previous meetings, Kotwica Kolobrzeg has 6 wins, Pogon Szczecin II has 2 wins, and there have been 0 draws. The most recent clash was on May 1, 2022, in the III Liga, where Kotwica Kolobrzeg won 1-0 at home. Pogon Szczecin II's last win in this fixture was earlier in the series, but Kotwica has won the last four encounters.

League Table Positions

Both teams compete in the IV Liga in Poland. While exact league table positions and points are not provided in the data, the form and head-to-head stats suggest Kotwica Kolobrzeg holds a competitive edge in this matchup. The home advantage further strengthens their position for this fixture.

Win Probability: Kotwica Kolobrzeg or Pogon Szczecin II?

Based on the odds, team form, head-to-head record, and home advantage, here is the calculated win probability for this match:

• Kotwica Kolobrzeg win: 42%
• Draw: 30%
• Pogon Szczecin II win: 28%

We derived these percentages by taking the inverse of the best available odds (home 2.55, draw 2.50, away 2.15) and normalizing them to remove the bookmaker margin. We then adjusted the raw probabilities based on Kotwica Kolobrzeg's dominant head-to-head record (6 wins in 8 matches) and home advantage, while slightly downgrading Pogon Szczecin II's chances due to their poor away form. Kotwica Kolobrzeg has a 42% chance of winning, making them the more likely winner, but the draw is a significant possibility at 30%.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer varying odds for this IV Liga clash. One bookmaker prices a home win at 3.10, a draw at 2.50, and an away win at 2.60. Another sets the odds at 2.55 for Kotwica Kolobrzeg, 3.90 for the draw, and 2.15 for Pogon Szczecin II. Based on the stats, the best value appears in the home win market. Our Kotwica Kolobrzeg vs Pogon Szczecin II prediction is a home victory, but the match could be closely contested given the draw probability.