TPV - KPV Kokkola prediction 10 October 2026

The TPV vs KPV Kokkola prediction for October 10, 2026, in the Ykkonen league points towards a home victory. Based on our win probability analysis, TPV has a 52% chance of winning, while KPV Kokkola sits at 22%, making the hosts the clear favorites in this Finnish football clash.

Team Form

TPV's recent form has been inconsistent, with results showing L, L, W, L, W in their last five matches. Their most recent outing was a 1-3 home defeat to Jazz on Sep 26. Prior to that, they suffered a 0-3 loss away at Inter Turku II on Sep 20, but did secure a 4-2 home win against KuPS Akatemia on Sep 13.

KPV Kokkola are struggling significantly, with a form line of L, W, L, L, L. They lost 0-2 away to VJS Vantaa on Sep 26, and before that suffered a 0-3 defeat at Jazz on Sep 11. Their only recent positive was a 3-2 home victory over KuPS Akatemia on Sep 18.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last four meetings, TPV have the edge with 1 win and 3 draws, remaining unbeaten against KPV Kokkola. The most recent encounter on Jul 11, 2026, saw TPV win 3-1 away at KPV Kokkola. The reverse fixture on Apr 11, 2026, ended in a 0-0 draw. Two earlier Cup matches in January 2018 also finished goalless.

League Table Positions

TPV currently sit 9th in the Ykkonen with 27 points from 25 matches, having scored 35 goals and conceded 48. KPV Kokkola are 11th with just 18 points, a goal difference of -48 after scoring only 27 times and conceding 75. At home, TPV are 7th with 19 points from 13 games, while KPV Kokkola's away form is poor, reflected in their overall low standing.

Win Probability: TPV or KPV Kokkola?

Based on the available odds, form, and head-to-head record, TPV has a 52% chance of winning this match. The draw is estimated at 26%, and KPV Kokkola has a 22% chance of an away victory. The probability calculation uses the inverse of the best available odds (1.68 for a TPV win, 4.70 for a draw, 3.63 for a KPV Kokkola win), normalized to remove the bookmaker margin, and then adjusted for TPV's unbeaten H2H record and superior league position. KPV Kokkola's dreadful away form and defensive record further reduce their chances.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see TPV as the strong favorite, with odds as low as 1.68 for a home win. The draw is priced around 4.70, and an away win for KPV Kokkola is available at 3.63. Based on the stats, the TPV vs KPV Kokkola prediction is a home win. TPV's unbeaten head-to-head record, better league standing, and KPV Kokkola's leaky defense—conceding 75 goals this season—make the hosts the most likely winners.