Harju JK Laagri - Kuressaare prediction 18 September 2026

The Harju JK Laagri vs Kuressaare prediction for this Meistriliiga clash on Sep 18, 2026 (16:00 UTC) points to a home victory. Based on the latest odds, form, and league positions, Harju JK Laagri enter the match as favorites with a win probability of 48%, while the draw stands at 30% and Kuressaare have a 22% chance of taking all three points.

Team Form

Harju JK Laagri's recent results show a mixed but slightly positive trend. In their last five outings they recorded three wins and two defeats: an away 2-1 victory against Paide Linnameeskond, a 3-2 loss at Parnu JK Vaprus, a 0-2 home loss to Tammeka Tartu, a 2-1 win at Nomme United, and a 1-0 home success over JK Nomme Kalju.

Kuressaare, on the other hand, have struggled for consistency. Their last five matches read L, L, W, D, L: a 1-3 home defeat to Tammeka Tartu, a heavy 0-4 loss at Levadia Tallinn, a 3-1 home victory against JK Narva Trans, a 2-2 home draw with Parnu JK Vaprus, and a 0-1 loss away to Tammeka Tartu. With just one win in five, the visitors arrive under pressure.

Head-to-Head Record

In the 13 previous meetings between these sides, the home team has won 5, there have been 5 draws, and the away side has triumphed 3 times. The most recent encounter saw Kuressaare win 3-2 at home on Aug 7, 2026, while the last meeting at this stadium ended 3-2 in Kuressaare's favor on Jun 13, 2026. That away success gives Kuressaare some hope, but historically the head-to-head leans toward the hosts.

League Table Positions

Harju JK Laagri sit 6th in the Meistriliiga with 34 points from 28 games (11 wins, 1 draw, 16 losses). At home they have collected 19 points (6 wins, 1 draw, 7 defeats). Kuressaare are 9th with 28 points (8 wins, 4 draws, 16 losses) and have performed poorly on the road — only 3 away wins, 1 draw, and 10 defeats from 14 trips. The six-point gap and home advantage clearly favor Harju JK Laagri.

Win Probability: Harju JK Laagri or Kuressaare?

We calculate the win probability using bookmaker odds as a base and adjusting for team form, H2H, and home/away records. The average match odds (home 1.93, draw 2.42, away 3.47) imply a chance of around 42.5% for a home win after removing the margin. Factoring in Harju's better recent results, Kuressaare's dreadful away form (10 losses in 14 away games), and the historical home edge, Harju JK Laagri have a 48% chance of winning, a draw is 30%, and Kuressaare 22%. The home side is the clear favourite to claim victory.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers price Harju JK Laagri between 1.91 and 1.95 for the win, the draw is offered at 2.40–2.45, and an away win for Kuressaare stands around 3.40–3.60. These odds reflect the market's view that the hosts are the stronger side. Taking into account all available data — the form guide, the head-to-head trend, and league standings — our Harju JK Laagri vs Kuressaare prediction is a home win. For betting tips, backing Harju JK Laagri to win offers value given their 48% probability against odds of about 1.93.