Kuressaare - Levadia Tallinn prediction 18 October 2026

Our Kuressaare vs Levadia Tallinn prediction for the Meistriliiga clash on Oct 18, 2026 is a straightforward away win, with Levadia Tallinn holding an 80% chance of victory. The match kicks off at 14:00 and all available data points to a one-sided contest between the league leaders and the eighth-placed hosts.

Team Form

Kuressaare come into the fixture with a mixed recent record: they have two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five league games. At home, they beat Flora Tallinn 2-0 on Oct 11 and JK Narva Trans 3-1 on Sep 5, but lost 1-3 to Tammeka Tartu and 0-4 at Levadia. An away goalless draw at Harju JK Laagri completes the sequence. The side has scored 33 goals and conceded 49 in 30 matches this season.

Levadia Tallinn are in dominant form, unbeaten in their last five with four wins and one draw. Since a 1-1 draw at JK Narva Trans on Sep 20, they have dispatched Tammeka Tartu 6-0, Parnu JK Vaprus 4-0, and Keila 10-0 in the cup, before a narrow 1-0 home win over Paide Linnameeskond on Oct 11. Their league record stands at 23 wins, 6 draws, and only 1 loss all season, with an impressive goal difference of 82:21.

Head-to-Head Record

Historically, this fixture has been extremely one-sided. In 35 previous meetings across the Meistriliiga, Kuressaare have won only 2, with 4 draws and a massive 29 wins for Levadia Tallinn. The last five head-to-heads all ended in favor of Levadia: 4-0 away (Sep 9, 2026), 2-1 at Kuressaare (May 2, 2026), 2-0 at home (Mar 8, 2026), 3-0 at Kuressaare (Oct 18, 2025), and 2-0 at home (Aug 1, 2025). No recent encounter suggests anything other than a clear away superiority.

League Table Positions

Levadia Tallinn sit top of the Meistriliiga with 75 points from 30 matches (23W,6D,1L) and have a goal difference of +61. Kuressaare are 8th with 32 points (9W,5D,16L) and a negative goal difference of -16. The gap is even wider when looking at home/away splits: Kuressaare’s home record is 8th in the league (6W,3D,6L, 20 goals scored and 22 conceded), while Levadia’s away form is perfect — 12 wins and 3 draws from 15 games, 35 goals for and only 14 against, earning 39 points and the top away rank.

Win Probability: Kuressaare or Levadia Tallinn?

Based on the head-to-head record, current form, league positions, and the stark contrast between Kuressaare’s home struggles and Levadia’s unbeaten away run, we assign the following outcome probabilities:

• Kuressaare win: 5%
• Draw: 15%
• Levadia Tallinn win: 80%

The home side has only managed 2 wins in 35 H2H meetings and their recent performances against top-five opposition have been unconvincing. Levadia, on the other hand, rarely drop points on the road and have scored 35 away goals while allowing just 14. An away victory is by far the most probable outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

No specific odds figures were included in the available data, but any bookmaker would install Levadia Tallinn as an overwhelming favourite. The stats point in one direction: an away win with a high likelihood of a clean sheet. Based on all available data, the prediction is a comfortable win for Levadia Tallinn, likely by a margin of two or more goals.