JK Narva Trans - Kuressaare prediction 14 October 2026

Our Kuressaare vs JK Narva Trans prediction for this Meistriliiga clash on Oct 14, 2026, sees the two sides as almost inseparable. After analyzing the latest odds, team form, and head-to-head record, Kuressaare has a 32% chance of winning, a draw is the most likely outcome at 36%, and JK Narva Trans also has a 32% probability.

Team Form

JK Narva Trans come into this match in poor shape, without a win in their last five outings (D, D, L, D, L). They drew 2-2 at Parnu JK Vaprus, 1-1 at home to Levadia Tallinn, and 2-2 at home to Flora Tallinn, but lost 0-2 at JK Nomme Kalju and 1-3 away to Kuressaare. The team has struggled for consistency, scoring just 24 goals in 30 league games this season.

Kuressaare’s recent form is slightly better, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five (W, D, L, L, W). They recorded a 2-0 home victory over Flora Tallinn and a 3-1 home win against JK Narva Trans, but suffered a 1-3 home defeat to Tammeka Tartu and a 0-4 thrashing at Levadia Tallinn. They also drew 0-0 at Harju JK Laagri.

Head-to-Head Record

Historically, JK Narva Trans lead the overall head-to-head with 21 wins to Kuressaare’s 12, alongside 10 draws. However, the recent meetings paint a different picture: Kuressaare are unbeaten in the last five encounters (2 wins, 3 draws). The most recent match on Sep 5, 2026, ended in a 3-1 home win for Kuressaare.

League Table Positions

In the Meistriliiga standings, Kuressaare sit 8th with 32 points from 30 matches (9 wins, 5 draws, 16 losses), while JK Narva Trans are bottom in 10th place with just 20 points (5 wins, 5 draws, 20 losses). Kuressaare have scored 33 goals and conceded 49; JK Narva Trans have netted only 24 and let in 67. The 12-point gap highlights Kuressaare’s slight edge this season.

Win Probability: Kuressaare or JK Narva Trans?

Based on the bookmaker odds, we calculated the initial implied probabilities: JK Narva Trans win 39.1%, draw 35.6%, Kuressaare win 25.3%. However, after adjusting for JK Narva Trans’s winless run, Kuressaare’s superior league position, and the recent head-to-head dominance by the away side, our final win probabilities are: JK Narva Trans 32%, draw 36%, Kuressaare 32%. This match is too close to call, with a draw being the single most probable outcome.

Kuressaare vs JK Narva Trans Prediction & Odds

Bookmakers have priced JK Narva Trans as slight favourites, with home win odds around 2.15, the draw at 2.25, and a Kuressaare victory at 3.40. These odds imply a home win probability of about 39%, but our analysis suggests the value lies with the draw or a Kuressaare double chance. Considering both teams’ struggles and the recent H2H trend, a low-scoring draw looks the most likely result. Our Kuressaare vs JK Narva Trans prediction is a 1-1 stalemate.