Parnu JK Vaprus - Kuressaare prediction 28 October 2026

The Parnu JK Vaprus vs Kuressaare prediction for October 28, 2026, points to a competitive Meistriliiga clash where the bookmakers' odds give a slight edge to the home side. Based on the stats and form, Parnu JK Vaprus has a 40% chance of winning, the draw is at 28%, and Kuressaare has a 32% probability. The match kicks off at 16:00 local time.

Team Form

Parnu JK Vaprus enters this fixture in poor shape. Their last five matches in the Meistriliiga have resulted in three losses and two draws. They have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of those games, conceding 13 goals. The most recent outings were a 4-2 defeat away to Nomme United on Oct 23 and a 2-0 loss at Harju JK Laagri on Oct 18.

Kuressaare's form is slightly more encouraging, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five league matches. They have secured two clean sheets during this run, winning 1-0 at JK Narva Trans on Oct 14 and beating Flora Tallinn 2-0 at home on Oct 11. However, they lost their last two home games against Paide Linnameeskond (0-1) and Levadia Tallinn (0-2).

Head-to-Head Record

In the overall head-to-head record across all competitions, Kuressaare holds a narrow advantage with 18 wins to Parnu JK Vaprus' 16, alongside 7 draws. The reverse fixture this season, played on June 26, 2026, ended in a 1-0 home win for Parnu JK Vaprus. The most recent encounter before that, on April 21, 2026, saw Kuressaare win 0-1 away. The last match between them on this ground (Aug 29, 2026) finished 2-2.

League Table Positions

Both teams are near the bottom of the Meistriliiga overall standings. Parnu JK Vaprus sits 7th with 36 points from 33 matches, while Kuressaare is 8th with 35 points. The home team has a better defensive record at their own ground, averaging 1.6 goals conceded per home game, compared to Kuressaare's 1.7 goals conceded per away game. Parnu JK Vaprus has picked up 25 points at home this season, while Kuressaare has managed just 14 points on the road.

Win Probability: Parnu JK Vaprus or Kuressaare?

Parnu JK Vaprus has a 40% chance of winning, the draw is estimated at 28%, and Kuressaare has a 32% probability. The calculation is based on bookmaker odds averaged across five bookies, normalized to remove the margin. The home side's odds of around 2.24 imply a 40% chance when adjusted, while Kuressaare's 2.90 odds translate to a 32% chance. Parnu's superior home record (7 wins) versus Kuressaare's poor away form (4 wins) and the home win in the most recent H2H give Parnu JK Vaprus a slight statistical edge. However, the recent form of both teams is unconvincing, which keeps the draw probability relatively high.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Parnu JK Vaprus as the favorite for this match. The best available odds in the pre-match market are 2.32 for a home win, 3.78 for the draw, and 3.00 for an away win. The tight spread between home and away odds reflects the balance suggested by the league standings. Based on the stats, the safest prediction is a home win for Parnu JK Vaprus, but a draw is a strong possibility given both teams' recent struggles to secure consistent victories. The total goals market could also be of interest, considering the defensive vulnerabilities on display.