Kalamata - Larissa prediction 17 September 2026
Kalamata
Larissa
Olympiacos PiraeusKalamataKalamataOFI CretePAOK ThessalonikiKalamataKalamataPanathinaikosKalamataLarissaKalamataVolos NFCAtromitosKalamataVolos NFCKalamataPanaitolikosKalamataKalamataAris ThessalonikiKalamataPanaitolikosPanioniosKalamataVolos NFCKalamataIraklis 1908KalamataMarkoKalamataPAE Athens KallitheaLarissaLarissaPanserraikosMarkoLarissaNiki VolouLarissaLarissaPAOK BPas Pyrgos 1968LarissaKalamataLarissaLarissaZakynthosLarissaAnagennisi KarditsasLarissaOlympiacos PiraeusPAE Athens KallitheaLarissaTrikala 2011LarissaKifisiasLarissaLarissaAtromitosPanaitolikosLarissaKalamataLarissaKalamataLarissaLarissaKalamataLarissaKalamataKalamataLarissaKalamataLarissaKalamata vs Larissa Prediction (Sep 17)
The Kalamata vs Larissa prediction for this Cup match on Sep 17, 2026, points to a home advantage, but recent form suggests a closer contest than the odds imply. Based on our analysis, Kalamata has a 46% chance of winning, the draw is at 34%, and Larissa holds a 20% probability of causing an upset.
Team Form
Kalamata's last five home matches show a mixed run: W, D, D, L, L. Their most recent result was a convincing 3-1 victory over Volos NFC on Sep 13, but prior to that they suffered a 2-3 loss to Aris Thessaloniki and a 0-2 defeat at Panaitolikos. The two draws came against Atromitos (1-1) and Volos NFC (2-2) in the Cup.
Larissa's away form over the same period reads W, D, L, W, W. They beat Zakynthos 1-0, PAE Athens Kallithea 3-1, and Trikala 2011 4-0, while drawing 1-1 with Anagennisi Karditsas. The only blemish was a heavy 0-4 loss at Olympiacos Piraeus in the Cup. Larissa have scored 9 goals in their last five away games, conceding 6.
Head-to-Head Record
In the last five meetings between these teams, Kalamata have won twice and Larissa three times, with no draws. The most recent clash on Aug 19, 2025, saw Larissa win 2-1 at Kalamata's ground. Historically, the head-to-head record slightly favors the away side, which adds intrigue to this fixture.
Win Probability: Kalamata or Larissa?
We calculated the win probabilities by starting with the bookmakers' average odds (home 1.55, draw 2.19, away 5.44) and removing the margin to get fair probabilities. That gave Kalamata roughly 49%, draw 35%, and Larissa 16%. We then adjusted for recent form and head-to-head results. Kalamata's shaky home form (only one win in five) and Larissa's strong away run (three wins in five) reduced the home win probability to 46%, while the draw stayed at 34% and Larissa's chances rose to 20%. Kalamata remains the most likely winner, but the gap is narrower than the raw odds suggest.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers see Kalamata as the clear favorite, with home win odds ranging from 1.53 to 1.57. The draw is priced between 2.10 and 2.25, and an away win for Larissa is offered at 5.00 to 6.00. These odds imply a comfortable home victory, but the value may lie in the draw market given both teams' recent tendency to share points. Based on the stats, Kalamata should have enough to edge this, but a low-scoring draw is a very realistic outcome.
Kalamata vs Larissa โ FAQ
- Who will win Kalamata vs Larissa?
- Kalamata is the favorite with a 46% win probability, while Larissa has a 20% chance and the draw stands at 34%. The home side is more likely to win, but recent form makes this a tighter contest than the odds suggest.
- What is the win probability for Kalamata?
- Kalamata has a 46% chance of winning. This is based on bookmaker odds adjusted for their recent home form (W,D,D,L,L) and a head-to-head record that slightly favors Larissa.
- When is the Kalamata vs Larissa match?
- The match is scheduled for Sep 17, 2026, at 13:30 UTC. It is a Cup fixture in Greece.
- What are the odds for the match?
- The best available odds are around 1.53 for a Kalamata win, 2.10 for the draw, and 5.00 for a Larissa victory. Different bookmakers offer slight variations, with away odds reaching up to 6.00.