Las Vegas Lights - San Antonio FC prediction 4 October 2026
Las Vegas Lights
San Antonio FC
Monterey BayLas Vegas LightsLas Vegas LightsLexington SCPhoenix RisingLas Vegas LightsLas Vegas LightsSan Antonio FCSacramento RepublicLas Vegas LightsLas Vegas LightsHartford AthleticOrange County Blue StarLas Vegas LightsLas Vegas LightsNew Mexico UnitedLas Vegas LightsCharleston BatteryLexington SCLas Vegas LightsLas Vegas LightsBrooklyn FCMiami FCLas Vegas LightsLas Vegas LightsOakland RootsLas Vegas LightsPhoenix RisingDetroit CityLas Vegas LightsSan Antonio FCOrange County Blue StarSan Antonio FCNew Mexico UnitedOakland RootsSan Antonio FCLas Vegas LightsSan Antonio FCSan Antonio FCSV Darmstadt 98San Antonio FCTampa Bay RowdiesSacramento RepublicSan Antonio FCColorado Springs SwitchbacksSan Antonio FCSan Antonio FCLouisville CardinalsSan Antonio FCTulsa RoughnecksNew Mexico UnitedSan Antonio FCSan Antonio FCOakland RootsSan Antonio FCEl Paso LocomotiveSan Antonio FCMiami FCLouisville CardinalsSan Antonio FCLas Vegas LightsSan Antonio FCSan Antonio FCLas Vegas LightsLas Vegas LightsSan Antonio FCSan Antonio FCLas Vegas Lights| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tampa Bay Rowdies | 30 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 52:26 | +26 | 61 |
| 2 |  Charleston Battery | 30 | 16 | 5 | 9 | 56:35 | +21 | 53 |
| 3 |  New Mexico United | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 45:34 | +11 | 52 |
| 4 |  Sacramento Republic | 30 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 42:28 | +14 | 51 |
| 5 |  Detroit City | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 34:21 | +13 | 51 |
| 6 |  El Paso Locomotive | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 48:38 | +10 | 50 |
| 7 |  Lexington SC | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 57:39 | +18 | 48 |
| 8 |  Louisville Cardinals | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 51:43 | +8 | 47 |
| 9 |  Colorado Springs Switchbacks | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 44:38 | +6 | 47 |
| 10 |  Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 30 | 13 | 6 | 11 | 33:30 | +3 | 45 |
| 11 | San Antonio FC | 30 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 32:30 | +2 | 45 |
| 12 |  Hartford Athletic | 30 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 35:33 | +2 | 43 |
| 13 |  Tulsa Roughnecks | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 34:31 | +3 | 43 |
| 14 |  Rhode Island FC | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 42:33 | +9 | 42 |
| 15 |  Phoenix Rising | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 45:46 | -1 | 40 |
| 16 |  Orange County Blue Star | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39:49 | -10 | 39 |
| 17 |  Oakland Roots | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 39:40 | -1 | 38 |
| 18 |  Miami FC | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 39:49 | -10 | 36 |
| 19 | Las Vegas Lights | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 41:48 | -7 | 36 |
| 20 |  Indy Eleven | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 35:41 | -6 | 34 |
| 21 |  Loudoun United | 30 | 6 | 13 | 11 | 38:48 | -10 | 31 |
| 22 |  Birmingham Legion | 30 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 40:46 | -6 | 30 |
| 23 |  Monterey Bay | 30 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 32:52 | -20 | 24 |
| 24 |  Brooklyn FC | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 34:63 | -29 | 21 |
| 25 |  Sporting Jax | 30 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 32:78 | -46 | 14 |
San Antonio FC vs Las Vegas Lights Prediction (Jul 19)
The San Antonio FC vs Las Vegas Lights prediction for July 19, 2026, points towards a home victory in this USL Championship clash. San Antonio FC enters the match as the clear favorite, with our model giving them a 52% win probability based on odds, form, and league position. The match kicks off at 01:00 UTC at San Antonio's home ground.
Team Form
San Antonio FC's recent form has been solid, with a record of W, D, D, W, L in their last five outings. They secured a 2-0 win over Chattanooga Red Wolves on Jul 12 and a 2-1 away victory at Colorado Springs Switchbacks on Jun 25. They have been tough to beat at home, remaining unbeaten in their last three matches at their own stadium.
Las Vegas Lights have been inconsistent, posting W, L, L, W, L in their last five. They won 3-2 away at Monterey Bay on Jul 12 but suffered a 1-2 home defeat to El Paso Locomotive on Jul 05. Their away form shows some resilience with two wins in the last three road trips, but defensive frailties remain a concern.
Head-to-Head Record
In the two previous meetings between these sides, San Antonio FC holds the edge. The head-to-head record stands at 1 win for San Antonio, 1 draw, and 0 wins for Las Vegas Lights. The most recent encounter on Aug 10, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw in Las Vegas. Prior to that, San Antonio dominated with a 3-0 home victory on Jun 08, 2025.
League Table Positions
San Antonio FC sits 4th in the overall USL Championship standings with 25 points from 15 matches (6 wins, 7 draws, 2 losses). Their home form is particularly impressive: 4th in the home table with 15 points from 7 games and an unbeaten record of 4 wins and 3 draws.
Las Vegas Lights are not featured in the provided top-12 standings, indicating they are positioned lower in the table. This gap in league position further strengthens the case for a home win.
Win Probability: San Antonio FC or Las Vegas Lights?
Based on the available data, we calculate the following win probabilities for this match:
- San Antonio FC win: 52%
- Draw: 28%
- Las Vegas Lights win: 20%
This calculation uses the inverse of the best available odds (1.88 for home, 2.05 for draw, 3.75 for away) to derive an initial implied probability, which is then normalized to remove the bookmaker margin. We then adjusted these figures based on San Antonio's strong home form (unbeaten in 7), their superior head-to-head record, and Las Vegas Lights' lower league standing. San Antonio FC has a 52% chance of winning, the draw is at 28%, and Las Vegas Lights has a 20% chance.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers see San Antonio FC as the favorite, with the best home win odds at 1.88. The draw is priced around 2.05, and an away win for Las Vegas Lights is offered at 3.75. These odds reflect the home side's strong position and unbeaten home record.
Prediction: Based on the stats, San Antonio FC is the more likely winner. Their solid home defense and Las Vegas Lights' inconsistent form suggest a low-scoring home victory is the most probable outcome.
San Antonio FC vs Las Vegas Lights โ FAQ
- Who will win San Antonio FC vs Las Vegas Lights?
- San Antonio FC is the favorite to win this USL Championship match. Our analysis gives San Antonio FC a 52% win probability, while Las Vegas Lights has a 20% chance, and the draw is at 28%.
- What is the win probability for San Antonio FC?
- San Antonio FC has a 52% chance of winning. This is based on their strong home form, where they are unbeaten in 7 matches, and a superior head-to-head record against Las Vegas Lights.
- When is the San Antonio FC vs Las Vegas Lights match?
- The match is scheduled for July 19, 2026, with a kick-off time of 01:00 UTC. It is a USL Championship fixture taking place in the USA.
- What are the odds for the match?
- The best available odds are 1.88 for a San Antonio FC win, 2.05 for a draw, and 3.75 for a Las Vegas Lights victory. These odds indicate the home side is the clear favorite.