Latvia U21 - Malta U21 prediction 6 October 2026

Latvia U21 vs Malta U21 prediction for the Euro Championship U21 Qualification match on Oct 6, 2026. Based on the latest odds and team form, Latvia U21 enters this fixture as the strong favorite with a 65% win probability, while Malta U21 has just a 12% chance of causing an upset.

Team Form

Latvia U21's last five results:

• Oct 1: Greece U21 4-2 Latvia U21 (L)
• Sep 26: Latvia U21 0-4 Germany U21 (L)
• Jun 9: Lithuania U21 2-2 Latvia U21 (D)
• Jun 5: Latvia U21 1-1 Estonia U21 (D)
• Mar 31: Latvia U21 1-3 Northern Ireland U21 (L)

Malta U21's last five results:

• Sep 30: Malta U21 1-4 Germany U21 (L)
• Sep 26: Malta U21 0-4 Northern Ireland U21 (L)
• Jun 4: Moldova U21 3-0 Malta U21 (L)
• Mar 31: Georgia U21 4-1 Malta U21 (L)
• Mar 27: Greece U21 5-0 Malta U21 (L)

Latvia has managed two draws, while Malta has lost every game, conceding heavily.

Head-to-Head Record

The only previous meeting ended in a 1-0 away win for Latvia U21 on Nov 18, 2025. That match was also in the Euro Championship U21 Qualification, with Latvia securing all three points. The head-to-head record stands at 1 win for Latvia, 0 draws, 0 wins for Malta.

League Table Positions

Neither team is ranked in the top 12 of the overall qualification standings. The group is led by Poland U21 with a perfect 27 points from 9 games, followed by Germany U21 and Spain U21. Latvia U21 and Malta U21 are likely in the lower half, with Latvia having a slight edge thanks to their earlier victory over Malta.

Win Probability: Latvia U21 or Malta U21?

Using the average bookmaker odds of 1.28 (home), 3.20 (draw), and 6.41 (away), the implied probabilities after removing the margin are 62.5% for Latvia, 25.1% for the draw, and 12.5% for Malta. We adjust these figures based on Latvia's home advantage, their head-to-head win, and Malta's dreadful form. Our final win probability assessment gives Latvia U21 a 65% chance, the draw a 23% chance, and Malta U21 a 12% chance. Latvia is the clear favorite to win.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer a home win at odds between 1.25 and 1.32, with the draw around 2.50 to 5.55, and an away win at 4.12 to 7.50. The consensus points to a comfortable Latvia victory. Our prediction: Latvia U21 to win. While Latvia's own form is not stellar, the gulf in class and the home crowd should be enough to secure three points. Given Malta's defensive record, a clean sheet for Latvia is plausible, and the total goals could be over 2.5.