Lautaro de Buin - Aguara prediction 14 October 2026

Lautaro de Buin vs Aguara prediction for the Tercera Division fixture on October 14, 2026. Kick-off is at 20:00 local time, and the home side Lautaro de Buin are the clear favorites with a 55% win probability. A draw stands at 25%, while Aguara have a 20% chance of pulling off an upset.

Team Form

Lautaro de Buin come into this match after a run of away games. Their last five results (most recent first) are: a 2-1 loss at Quintero Unido on Oct 10, a 0-0 draw at the same opponent on Oct 7, a 4-3 victory at CDS Constitucion Unido on Oct 2, a 1-0 win at Chimbarongo on Aug 23, and a 3-0 triumph at Imperial Unido on Aug 20. That gives them three wins, one draw, and one loss in the last five – a solid record considering all were on the road.

Aguara have played three of their last five games at home. Their sequence reads: a 3-2 home win against Comunal Cabrero (Sep 27), a 1-1 away draw at Futuro FC (Sep 13), a 2-0 home win over CDS Constitucion Unido (Aug 30), a 4-3 defeat at Puente Alto (Aug 22), and a 1-1 home draw with CD Rancagua Sur (Aug 16). That totals two wins, two draws, and one loss, but their away performances have been less convincing with only one point from two trips.

Head-to-Head Record

The H2H record strongly favors Lautaro de Buin: they are unbeaten in three previous meetings (2 wins, 1 draw). The most recent clash on Jun 26, 2026 ended 1-1 when Aguara hosted. Lautaro de Buin won 5-3 at home on Aug 30, 2025, and also claimed a 3-2 away victory on May 17, 2025. Aguara have never beaten Lautaro de Buin in regulation time.

Lautaro de Buin vs Aguara Prediction & Odds

Win probability calculation, based on head-to-head dominance, home advantage, and recent form, gives Lautaro de Buin a 55% chance of winning. The draw is estimated at 25%, and Aguara’s win probability stands at 20%. Lautaro’s return to home soil after five straight away matches and their perfect H2H record (2W,1D) are the main factors behind this assessment. Aguara’s inconsistent away displays add weight to the home favorite call.

Currently, no specific odds are available from bookmakers for this match. However, using the statistical model, Lautaro de Buin would be expected to be priced as favorites. The match outcome predicted based on the stats is a home victory for Lautaro de Buin. The team’s form, H2H record, and home setting all point in that direction, though Aguara have shown they can snatch draws on the road.