Independiente Del Valle - LDU Quito prediction 1 November 2026

Our LDU Quito vs Independiente Del Valle prediction for the Serie A match on August 08, 2026, gives LDU Quito a 38% chance of winning, the draw at 35%, and Independiente Del Valle a 27% chance. Kick-off is at 00:00 local time in Ecuador's top flight, and bookmakers see a very close contest.

Team Form

LDU Quito’s recent form has been mixed. In their last five matches they recorded two wins, one draw, and two defeats. Their most recent league home game ended in a 0‑1 loss to Leones Del Norte on July 18, although they did win a cup fixture 6‑0 against the same opponent on July 30.

• Jul 30 (Cup): LDU Quito 6‑0 Leones Del Norte – W
• Jul 27 (Serie A): Barcelona Guayaquil 0‑1 LDU Quito – W
• Jul 23 (Serie A): Manta FC 1‑1 LDU Quito – D
• Jul 18 (Serie A): LDU Quito 0‑1 Leones Del Norte – L
• Jul 15 (Serie A): Universidad Catolica 1‑0 LDU Quito – L

Independiente Del Valle, on the other hand, are on a perfect five-match winning streak across all competitions, scoring 14 goals and conceding only 3.

• Aug 02 (Serie A): Independiente 1‑0 Deportivo Cuenca – W
• Jul 30 (Cup): Independiente 1‑0 Manta FC – W
• Jul 26 (Serie A): Orense SC 2‑3 Independiente – W
• Jul 22 (Serie A): Independiente 3‑0 Tecnico Universitario – W
• Jul 20 (Serie A): Independiente 6‑1 Emelec – W

Head-to-Head Record

Overall, LDU Quito hold a slight edge with 16 wins to Independiente Del Valle’s 9, alongside 8 draws. The last five meetings have all gone in favour of LDU Quito or ended level – two wins for the home side and three draws. The most recent clash, on April 19, 2026, saw LDU Quito win 2‑0 away at Independiente.

Win Probability: LDU Quito or Independiente Del Valle?

Based on the available odds, team form and head-to-head data, the win probability for this match is as follows:

• LDU Quito win: 38%
• Draw: 35%
• Independiente Del Valle win: 27%

We started from the bookmaker odds (home 2.37, draw 2.15, away 2.99 on average) and removed the margin to get a base. Then we adjusted for LDU Quito’s unbeaten H2H run (two wins, three draws in the last five) and home advantage, while Independiente’s perfect recent form prevented a larger shift. The numbers show LDU Quito as the most likely winner, but the draw is a very realistic outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available 1X2 odds at the time of writing are: home win 2.35, draw 2.15, away win 3.00. Bookmakers therefore see a draw as the most probable result, with Independiente Del Valle the clear underdog. Considering the stats, our LDU Quito vs Independiente Del Valle prediction is that LDU Quito are likely to avoid defeat – a home win or a draw seems the safest bet. Backing LDU Quito on the double chance market could offer value for cautious punters.