LDU Quito - Macara prediction 24 October 2026

The LDU Quito vs Macara prediction for October 24, 2026, sees LDU Quito as the favorite with a 52% win probability. The match kicks off at 22:30 in the Ecuadorian Serie A, where bookmakers' odds heavily lean towards a home victory, but recent head-to-head stats suggest Macara could make this a contest.

Team Form

LDU Quito enter this fixture in solid shape, with three wins and two draws in their last five matches. They recently earned a 1-1 draw away to SD Aucas Quito on Oct 17, and a 2-1 home win against Barcelona Guayaquil on Oct 11. Victories over Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (2-1) and Palmeiras SP (3-2) in the Copa Libertadores highlight their threat, though a 1-1 draw with Deportivo Cuenca on Sep 12 keeps them grounded.

Macara are in even stronger form over the same period, boasting four wins and a single loss. Their only defeat came away to league leaders Independiente Del Valle on Sep 6 (1-3). Since then, they have beaten Emelec (1-0), won 2-1 at SD Aucas Quito, and claimed a 1-0 victory at Universidad Catolica del Ecuador before a 1-0 home win against Independiente Del Valle on Oct 17. This run shows a team full of confidence and hard to beat.

Head-to-Head Record

The history between these sides covers 30 matches, with LDU Quito winning 15, Macara 10, and 5 draws. The most recent five encounters, however, tell a different story. Macara won the last two meetings: a 1-0 home victory on Jul 5, 2026, and a 2-0 away win at LDU Quito on Mar 1, 2026. Before that, they drew 1-1 in August 2025, and LDU Quito won 1-0 away in May 2025. The last LDU Quito home win over Macara was a 2-1 result back on Mar 5, 2024.

League Table Positions

Macara sit 3rd in the overall Serie A standings with 51 points from 30 games, while LDU Quito are 5th with 46 points. The five-point gap is reflected in their respective records: Macara have 15 wins to LDU Quito's 13. At home, Macara rank 4th with 30 points, while LDU Quito's away form places them 3rd with 23 points from 15 road games. Defensively, LDU Quito have conceded only 24 goals all season — the joint-best defensive record in the league — compared to Macara's 33 conceded.

Win Probability: LDU Quito or Macara?

Based on the provided odds, recent form, head-to-head record, and league table positions, the win probability for this match is calculated as follows: LDU Quito win 52%, draw 26%, Macara win 22%. This assessment starts from the inverse of the averaged bookmaker odds, normalized to remove the margin, and is then adjusted for LDU Quito's slightly less consistent recent form and Macara's superior H2H results in the last two games. While LDU Quito are the favorites, Macara's strong form and recent success against them make the draw and away win realistic possibilities.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see LDU Quito as the clear favorite. The best available odds for a home win are 1.77, with other bookmakers offering 1.73. A draw pays around 3.40, while a Macara away win is priced as high as 5.00. The discrepancy in odds shows the market's expectation leans towards LDU Quito. Based on the stats, LDU Quito have the edge at home, but Macara's winning momentum cannot be ignored. The prediction is a closely fought contest where LDU Quito might just edge it, but a draw is a very live runner given Macara's recent H2H record.