Bournemouth - Leeds United prediction 31 October 2026

Our Bournemouth vs Leeds United prediction is built for the Premier League match on October 31, 2026, at 15:00 at Dean Court. Based on recent form, head-to-head data, and the odds, Bournemouth enters as a moderate favorite with a win probability of around 45%, while Leeds United holds roughly a 30% chance of victory. The draw sits at about 25%, reflecting how evenly these sides have matched up in recent meetings.

Team Form

Bournemouth's last five results show an impressive 'W, W, W, W, L' pattern. They beat Manchester United 0-3 away, AC Milan 3-0 at home in the Europa League, Sunderland 2-0 at home, and Sturm Graz 3-0 at home, before a 5-1 loss at Chelsea. That's four wins in five, with three clean sheets at Dean Court, where they've been formidable.

Leeds United's recent form reads 'D, D, L, D, W'. They drew 0-0 at Sunderland, 1-1 at home to Manchester United, lost 2-1 at Arsenal, drew 0-0 at home to Crystal Palace, and beat Newcastle United 4-1 at home. Leeds are proving tough to beat but have only one win in their last five away from home.

Head-to-Head Record

The last four Premier League meetings between these two sides have produced 1 win each and 2 draws. The most recent clash on April 22, 2026, at Dean Court ended in a 2-2 draw. Earlier that season, Leeds hosted Bournemouth on September 27, 2025, with another 2-2 draw. Bournemouth won 4-1 at home on April 30, 2023, while Leeds won 4-3 at home on November 5, 2022. The head-to-head record underlines how closely matched these teams are, with goals almost guaranteed.

League Table Positions

Leeds United sit 8th in the overall Premier League table with 10 points from 7 matches (2 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss, 9 goals scored, 6 conceded). Bournemouth are not shown in the provided overall standings, suggesting they are outside the top 12. In the home standings, Leeds are 8th with 6 points from 4 games (1 win, 3 draws, 0 losses), highlighting their defensive solidity away from Elland Road.

Win Probability: Bournemouth or Leeds United?

Using the inverse of the average odds and adjusting for home advantage and recent form gives us the following probabilities: Bournemouth has a 45% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and Leeds United has a 30% chance. The bookmakers' average home odds of around 2.10 imply a theoretical probability near 47%, but Leeds' away resilience (unbeaten in 3 of their last 4 on the road in the league) and the frequent draws in this fixture pull the draw probability higher. Bournemouth's excellent recent home form makes them the more likely winner, but the value lies in the draw market given the head-to-head history.

Odds & Match Prediction

The available pre-match odds show Bournemouth as the favorite. Among the provided bookmakers, home win odds range from 2.00 to 2.22, draw odds range from 2.10 to 3.60, and away win odds range from 3.25 to 3.60. The best price for a Bournemouth win is 2.22, for a draw is 3.60, and for a Leeds win is 3.60.

Based on the stats, the most probable match outcome is a home win for Bournemouth, but a draw is a very close second in terms of likelihood. Bournemouth's attacking rhythm at Dean Court and Leeds' habit of sharing points on the road make this a tight contest. Expect goals, and consider the draw as a strong betting tip.