JFK Ventspils - Leevon PPK prediction 10 October 2026

Our JFK Ventspils vs Leevon PPK prediction for this 1st League clash on October 10, 2026, at 15:00 points to an away victory. Leevon PPK enters the match as the clear favorite with a 55% win probability, while bottom-placed JFK Ventspils has just a 20% chance of pulling off an upset.

Team Form

JFK Ventspils has struggled badly in recent weeks, picking up only one win in their last five outings (L, W, L, L, D). A 1-0 home success against Skanstes on September 20 was the lone bright spot, but heavy defeats to METTA/LU (0-7) and Rigas Futbola Skola II (1-4) exposed serious defensive frailties. The team has managed just one clean sheet in that run and sits at the foot of the table.

Leevon PPK, in contrast, is flying high with four wins and one draw from their last five matches (D, W, W, W, W). They have scored 10 goals in that sequence, beating Tukums 2000 B 3-0, SK Super Nova 2 2-1, FK Smiltene 4-2, and Marupe 1-0, while also drawing 1-1 with Riga 2. The attack is in fine form, and the defense has kept three clean sheets in those five games.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record slightly favors Leevon PPK, who have won three of the last six meetings, with JFK Ventspils winning two and one draw. The most recent encounter on May 23, 2026, ended 2-1 to Leevon PPK. JFK Ventspils’ last home win in this fixture came back on November 2, 2024 (4-1), but since then Leevon PPK has taken control, winning three of the last four matchups.

League Table Positions

The standings underline the gulf between the sides. Leevon PPK sits 3rd in the 1st League with 49 points from 21 games, boasting the best home record in the division (9 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) and the 4th-best away record. JFK Ventspils is 12th with only 15 points, having won just three times all season. The 34-point gap and Leevon PPK’s superior goal difference (+18 vs -20) make this a classic top-versus-bottom mismatch.

Win Probability: JFK Ventspils or Leevon PPK?

Based on the available odds, team form, head-to-head record, and league positions, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: JFK Ventspils 20%, draw 25%, Leevon PPK 55%. The bookmakers’ average odds (home 5.10, draw 2.61, away 1.84) already imply a strong away favorite, but Leevon PPK’s dominant form and JFK Ventspils’ poor results justify an even higher probability for the visitors. The home side’s only real hope is a low-scoring draw, but Leevon PPK’s attack should prove too strong.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer odds around 5.00–5.50 for a JFK Ventspils win, 2.52–2.70 for the draw, and 1.73–1.91 for a Leevon PPK victory. These prices reflect Leevon PPK’s status as the clear favorite. Our match prediction, based on the stats, is an away win for Leevon PPK. The form gap, historical edge, and league table positions all point to the visitors taking all three points.