Levadia Tallinn - Harju JK Laagri prediction 24 October 2026

Levadia Tallinn vs Harju JK Laagri prediction for October 24, 2026, in the Estonian Meistriliiga sees Levadia Tallinn as the clear favorite with a 68% win probability. The match kicks off at 15:00 local time at the A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn, and based on Levadia’s dominant league position, head-to-head record, and home form, a comfortable home victory is the most likely scenario.

Team Form

Levadia Tallinn come into this fixture with outstanding recent results. Their last five matches show four wins and one draw:

• Oct 18: Kuressaare 0–2 Levadia Tallinn (W)
• Oct 15: Flora Tallinn 1–3 Levadia Tallinn (W)
• Oct 11: Levadia Tallinn 1–0 Paide Linnameeskond (W)
• Oct 7: Levadia Tallinn 10–0 Keila (Cup – W)
• Sep 20: JK Narva Trans 1–1 Levadia Tallinn (D)

Harju JK Laagri are also enjoying a strong run of form, with four wins and a draw in their last five outings:

• Oct 18: Harju JK Laagri 2–0 Parnu JK Vaprus (W)
• Oct 13: Harju JK Laagri 2–0 Nomme United (W)
• Oct 10: JK Nomme Kalju 0–1 Harju JK Laagri (W)
• Oct 3: FC Tallinn 0–10 Harju JK Laagri (Cup – W)
• Sep 18: Harju JK Laagri 0–0 Kuressaare (D)

While both sides are carrying momentum, Levadia’s wins have come against higher-calibre league opponents, and their defensive record at home is almost impenetrable.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head numbers heavily favor Levadia Tallinn. In 11 previous meetings, Levadia have won 8, Harju JK Laagri have won just 1, and 2 ended as draws. The last five encounters underline that dominance:

• Aug 16, 2026: Harju JK Laagri 1–2 Levadia Tallinn
• May 9, 2026: Levadia Tallinn 3–0 Harju JK Laagri
• Mar 15, 2026: Harju JK Laagri 1–3 Levadia Tallinn
• Nov 8, 2025: Harju JK Laagri 2–2 Levadia Tallinn
• Jul 19, 2025: Harju JK Laagri 0–3 Levadia Tallinn

Levadia have scored at least twice in each of the last four H2H meetings, while keeping clean sheets in two of them. Harju’s sole victory in this fixture came earlier in the historical record, and they have not beaten Levadia in any of the matches listed above.

League Table Positions

Levadia Tallinn sit top of the Meistriliiga with 81 points from 32 matches (25 wins, 6 draws, 1 loss). They have scored 87 goals and conceded only 22, giving them a +65 goal difference. At home, their record is even more formidable: 11 wins, 3 draws and just 1 defeat, with 47 goals scored and only 7 conceded.

Harju JK Laagri are 6th with 44 points (14 wins, 2 draws, 16 losses) and a negative goal difference of –2. Their away form has been inconsistent – 6 wins, 0 draws and 9 defeats on the road, scoring 18 and conceding 26. The 37-point gap between the two sides in the overall standings highlights the gulf in consistency.

Win Probability: Levadia Tallinn or Harju JK Laagri?

Based on the betting odds, current form, head-to-head record, and home advantage, the outcome probabilities are:

• Levadia Tallinn win: 68%
• Draw: 22%
• Harju JK Laagri win: 10%

These percentages are derived from the inverse of the bookmaker odds (1.18 home, 3.10 draw, 7.50 away), normalized to remove the margin, and then adjusted slightly upward for the home side due to Levadia’s perfect H2H record and their near-flawless home form. The data makes it clear that Levadia Tallinn are firmly expected to take all three points.

Odds & Match Prediction

The pre-match odds for the 1X2 market are:

• Levadia Tallinn: 1.18
• Draw: 3.10
• Harju JK Laagri: 7.50

Bookmakers overwhelmingly see Levadia Tallinn as the favorite. With a home win probability of 68% and odds as short as 1.18, the betting market expects a one-sided contest. Our prediction is a home win for Levadia Tallinn. Given their defensive solidity and Harju’s struggles away from home, a victory by a two‑goal margin appears the most realistic outcome based on the stats.