Neptunas Klaipeda - Lietava Jonava prediction 11 September 2026

The Neptunas Klaipeda vs Lietava Jonava prediction for September 11, 2026, in Lithuania's 1 Lyga points to a home victory. Neptunas Klaipeda enters the match as the clear favorite with a 50% win probability, while Lietava Jonava faces an uphill battle at 20%. The match kicks off at 14:00.

Team Form

Neptunas Klaipeda's recent form has been inconsistent, with two wins and three losses in their last five outings (L, W, L, L, W). The home side beat Atmosfera Mazeikiai 3-1 and FK Tauras Taurage 2-0, but suffered defeats against Vilnius Zalgiris B, BFA Vilnius, and a heavy 0-4 loss to FK Babrungas Plunge.

Lietava Jonava's form is even poorer: one win, one draw, and three losses (D, W, L, L, L). Their only victory came away at FK Transinvest B (2-1), while they were held 0-0 by Dainava Alytus and lost to FA Siauliai B, FK Kauno Zalgiris 2, and Ekranas Panevezio.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head record shows 4 home wins, 0 draws, and 3 away wins, indicating a slight home advantage historically. In the last five meetings, Neptunas Klaipeda has dominated with four wins to Lietava Jonava's one. The most recent clash on May 8, 2026, ended 1-0 to Neptunas Klaipeda. Other notable results include a 5-2 away win for Neptunas in November 2023 and a 2-0 home win in June 2023.

League Table Positions

Neptunas Klaipeda sits 4th in the 1 Lyga with 41 points from 23 matches (13 wins, 2 draws, 8 losses). They have scored 30 goals and conceded 28. At home, they rank 8th with 21 points from 11 games (7 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses). Lietava Jonava is 10th with 27 points (7 wins, 6 draws, 10 losses), scoring 26 and conceding 28. Their away form is outside the top eight, highlighting their struggles on the road.

Win Probability: Neptunas Klaipeda or Lietava Jonava?

Based on the odds, team form, head-to-head record, and league positions, the win probabilities are: Neptunas Klaipeda 50%, draw 30%, Lietava Jonava 20%. The bookmakers' implied probabilities (from odds of 1.80, 2.30, 3.80) were 44.3%, 34.7%, 21.0% after removing the margin. We adjusted Neptunas Klaipeda's chance upward due to their superior league standing, home advantage, and recent H2H dominance (4 wins in 5). The draw probability was slightly reduced because both teams have shown a tendency to produce results rather than stalemates in this fixture (0 draws in the last 5 H2H matches).

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Neptunas Klaipeda as the favorite with odds around 1.80 for a home win. The draw is priced at 2.30, and an away win for Lietava Jonava at 3.80. Based on the stats, a home win is the most likely outcome. Neptunas Klaipeda's stronger league position, decent home record (7 wins in 11), and historical edge over Lietava Jonava make them the probable winners. However, their recent form is patchy, so a low-scoring affair could be on the cards.