Baerum - Lillestrom prediction 1 October 2026

The Baerum vs Lillestrom prediction for October 1, 2026, points to a clear favorite in this Norwegian Cup clash. Based on the latest odds and team form, Lillestrom enters the match with a significantly higher win probability. The game kicks off at 17:00, and the data suggests the visitors should dominate.

Team Form

Baerum's recent form is poor, with three losses, one win, and one draw in their last five outings. They are coming off a 2-0 defeat to Valerenga 2 on September 26 and have conceded 10 goals in their last three matches. Their only win in this stretch was a 1-0 home victory against Nordstrand on September 5.

Lillestrom's form is mixed but comes against much stronger opposition in the Eliteserien and UEFA Europa League. Their last five results show two wins and three losses. They suffered a 3-0 away loss to Viking on September 20 and a 2-1 home defeat to SCU Torreense in the Europa League, but they also secured a 2-0 home win over Valerenga and a 2-1 away win at Brann.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no recorded head-to-head history between Baerum and Lillestrom. The H2H record shows zero wins for the home side, zero draws, and zero wins for the away side, making this their first documented meeting.

League Table Positions

While specific league table positions are not provided in the data, the context is clear. Lillestrom competes in the Eliteserien, the top tier of Norwegian football, and also participates in European competition. Baerum plays in the 3rd Division, which is the fourth level of the Norwegian league system. The gap in competitive level is a major factor in this match.

Win Probability: Baerum or Lillestrom?

Based on the available odds, form, and the significant gap in league tiers, the win probabilities are heavily skewed. Lillestrom has a 70% chance of winning this match. The draw sits at a 22% probability, while Baerum has just an 8% chance of causing an upset. This calculation uses the inverse of the best available odds, normalized to remove the bookmaker margin, and is further adjusted by Lillestrom's superior competitive level and Baerum's poor defensive form.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Lillestrom as the overwhelming favorite. The best available odds for an away win are as low as 1.14, while a home win for Baerum is priced as high as 13.00. The draw is offered at odds between 3.10 and 7.00. Based on the stats, the prediction is an away win for Lillestrom. The difference in league quality and Baerum's recent defensive struggles make a Lillestrom victory the most likely match outcome.