Ukraine U21 - Lithuania U21 prediction 27 March 2026

Looking for a Lithuania U21 vs Ukraine U21 prediction? The Euro Championship U21 Qualification match on March 27, 2026, at 17:00 UTC has Ukraine U21 as the favorite with a 45% win probability. A draw is rated at 35%, and Lithuania U21 holds a 20% chance of a home victory.

Team Form

Lithuania U21 come into this fixture winless in their last five outings (0W-3D-2L). Their recent results show a series of draws: 2-2 at home against Latvia U21, 2-2 away at Estonia U21, and a 1-1 draw away at Ukraine U21. That was followed by two defeats – a 1-2 home loss to Turkey U21 and a heavy 0-4 away loss at Croatia U21. Over these five matches, they conceded 10 goals and scored only 6, pointing to defensive issues.

Ukraine U21's form is slightly better with a 1-1-3 record in their last five. After a 2-1 win at Hungary U21 in the qualifiers, they drew 1-1 at home against Lithuania U21, but then lost three consecutive friendlies: 0-2 at Albania U21, 1-3 at home to USA U21, and a 0-3 loss to Japan U21. Those results show inconsistency, yet the competitive win against Hungary keeps them marginally ahead of Lithuania in terms of recent performance.

Head-to-Head Record

Only two senior U21 meetings exist in this qualification cycle. Ukraine U21 are unbeaten with one win and one draw. On September 5, 2025, Ukraine thrashed Lithuania 4-0 at home. The reverse fixture on March 27, 2026, ended 1-1. Ukraine have scored five goals and conceded only one across these encounters, giving them a clear historical advantage.

League Table Positions

The exact league table standings for Lithuania U21 and Ukraine U21 are not included in the available dataset. The match is part of the European Under-21 Championship qualification campaign.

Win Probability: Lithuania U21 or Ukraine U21?

After weighing all available factors – head-to-head record, recent form, and home advantage – we calculate the following outcome probabilities:

• Ukraine U21 win: 45% – The stronger side on paper, backed by the 4-0 H2H victory and a mix of competitive results.
• Draw: 35% – Lithuania's three draws in their last five show they can be stubborn, and Ukraine themselves drew the most recent meeting.
• Lithuania U21 win: 20% – A home upset is unlikely given their lack of wins and the dominance Ukraine showed in the first head-to-head.

Ukraine U21 is the more probable winner, but a stalemate cannot be discounted.

Odds & Match Prediction

At the time of writing, bookmaker odds for the 1X2 market are not available. When lines are released, Ukraine U21 should be listed as the favorites. Based purely on the underlying numbers, our match prediction is an away win for Ukraine U21. A double chance bet (Ukraine or Draw) provides coverage for 80% of the statistically likely outcomes and may be the sharpest betting angle. If you prefer goal markets, the Over 2.5 goals pick is worth consideration given Ukraine's attacking potential in the 4-0 H2H win.