River Plate Montevideo Reserves - Liverpool Montevideo Reserves prediction 26 October 2026

The River Plate Montevideo Reserves vs Liverpool Montevideo Reserves prediction for October 26, 2026, sees the away side as the clear favorite with a 48% win probability in this Primera Division Reserve League clash. Based on head-to-head dominance and recent form, Liverpool Montevideo Reserves are the more likely winners.

Team Form

River Plate Montevideo Reserves have struggled for consistency, as their last five matches show a record of D, L, W, L, L. Their most recent outing was a 2–2 draw away at Montevideo Wanderers Reserves on October 19. Before that, they suffered a heavy 0–4 home loss to La Luz FC Reserves on October 12, but managed a 3–0 away victory at Colon FC Reserve on October 5. In total, they have conceded 11 goals in their last five matches.

Liverpool Montevideo Reserves are also in poor form, marked as L, L, L, W, L. On October 19, they lost 0–2 at home to Racing Montevideo Reserves. That followed a tough 2–5 away defeat against Juventud de las Piedras Reserves on October 12. Their only bright spot in this run was a 1–0 home win over Montevideo Wanderers Reserves on September 29. Both teams are desperate to turn their form around.

Head-to-Head Record

The H2H record heavily favors the away team. In five previous meetings, Liverpool Montevideo Reserves have won three times, while River Plate Montevideo Reserves have won once, and there has been one draw.

The most recent H2H match on June 22, 2026, ended in a thrilling 3–3 draw. However, Liverpool Montevideo Reserves secured a dominant 8–1 victory when the sides met on October 27, 2025, and also won 4–0 against River Plate Montevideo Reserves on April 28, 2025. These high-scoring wins highlight a historical gap between the two sides.

League Table Positions

While exact league table positions and points are not provided in the available data, the recent form and head-to-head record suggest Liverpool Montevideo Reserves have been the stronger side in this fixture over recent seasons. The data indicates that River Plate Montevideo Reserves have found it difficult to secure points in this matchup, losing three of five encounters.

Win Probability: River Plate Montevideo Reserves or Liverpool Montevideo Reserves?

After analyzing the available odds, team form, and head-to-head record, the calculated win probabilities are: River Plate Montevideo Reserves have a 32% chance of winning, a draw stands at 28%, and Liverpool Montevideo Reserves have a 40% chance. These percentages are derived by normalizing the inverse of the average bookmaker odds to remove the margin, then adjusting for Liverpool Montevideo Reserves' superior H2H record (3 wins in 5) and away advantage in this fixture.

Based on the stats, Liverpool Montevideo Reserves are the more likely winner. Their historical dominance, including an 8–1 victory and a 4–0 away win in recent seasons, makes them the smart pick despite both teams struggling for form lately.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as a competitive match, but with Liverpool Montevideo Reserves as the slight favorite. The best available odds across markets are: away win at 2.01, draw at 2.38, and home win at 2.70. These odds reflect the market's expectation of a tight contest, yet they align with the head-to-head history favoring the away side.

Our match prediction is an away win for Liverpool Montevideo Reserves, based on the stats. Their track record in this fixture is hard to ignore, even though recent form is patchy for both sides. A low-scoring game could be on the cards, but the value lies with the visitors to secure all three points.