Liverpool - Manchester City prediction 11 October 2026
Liverpool
Manchester CityLiverpool
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 20:9 | +11 | 21 |
| 2 |  Arsenal FC | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 13:5 | +8 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 23:5 | +18 | 16 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17:15 | +2 | 13 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9:8 | +1 | 12 |
| 6 |  Aston Villa | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9:12 | -3 | 11 |
| 7 |  Brentford | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 13:8 | +5 | 10 |
| 8 |  Leeds United | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9:6 | +3 | 10 |
| 9 |  Everton | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8:9 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 |  Ipswich | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12:16 | -4 | 10 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8:7 | +1 | 9 |
| 12 |  Tottenham Hotspur | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8:10 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 |  Fulham | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:10 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 |  Newcastle United | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10:14 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 |  Manchester United | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10:10 | 0 | 7 |
| 16 |  Crystal Palace | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9:17 | -8 | 7 |
| 17 |  Bournemouth | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9:13 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 |  Nottingham Forest | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6:10 | -4 | 6 |
| 19 |  Coventry City | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6:15 | -9 | 6 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6:14 | -8 | 4 |
Liverpool vs Manchester City Prediction (Oct 11)
The Liverpool vs Manchester City prediction for October 11, 2026, points to an away win for the league leaders. Manchester City enters this Premier League clash at Anfield with a 45% win probability, while Liverpool has just a 25% chance and the draw sits at 30%. Kick-off is at 16:30, and all signs point to a tight but City-favored contest.
Team Form
Liverpool comes into this match unbeaten in their last five outings (W-W-D-W-W). They beat Bournemouth 1-0 away, thrashed Tottenham 3-1 in the League Cup, drew 0-0 with Fulham at home, edged Atlรฉtico Madrid 2-1 in the Champions League, and won 2-0 at Ipswich. However, their home league form is a concern โ from two matches at Anfield this season, they have yet to win (0W-2D-0L), collecting only two points.
Manchester City is in flawless form with five straight wins across all competitions. They outscored Sunderland 5-3, demolished Norwich 5-0 in the League Cup, beat Manchester United 1-0 away, won 2-0 at Porto in Europe, and edged Coventry 1-0 at home. Cityโs away record in the league is perfect: two wins from two, scoring five and conceding just one.
Head-to-Head Record
Historically, the head-to-head record is finely balanced. In 38 previous meetings, Liverpool have won 13 at home, there have been 10 draws, and Manchester City have claimed 15 away wins. The last five encounters tell a similar story of City dominance: they won 4-0 in the FA Cup in April 2026, 2-1 at Anfield in February 2026, and 3-0 at home in November 2025. Liverpoolโs last wins came in February 2025 (2-0 away) and December 2024 (2-0 at home).
League Table Positions
Manchester City sit top of the Premier League with a perfect 15 points from five matches (5W-0D-0L), scoring 13 and conceding 5. Liverpool are 6th with 9 points (2W-3D-0L), having scored 7 and conceded 4. The six-point gap reflects Cityโs ruthless efficiency, while Liverpoolโs three draws have cost them ground. Notably, Liverpoolโs away form is the best in the league (7 points from 3 games), but at home they rank outside the top eight.
Win Probability: Liverpool or Manchester City?
Based on the odds, recent form, head-to-head results, and home/away splits, we calculate the following win probabilities:
- Liverpool win: 25%
- Draw: 30%
- Manchester City win: 45%
The bookmakersโ average odds (2.94 home, 2.42 draw, 2.42 away) imply a very close contest, but after removing the margin, the raw probabilities are roughly 29%โ35%โ35%. We adjust those numbers downward for Liverpool because of their poor home record (no wins at Anfield this season) and upward for Manchester City due to their perfect away form and dominant recent H2H. The draw remains a strong possibility given Liverpoolโs three league draws already, but Cityโs winning momentum makes them the likeliest winner.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers see this as a tight affair. The best available odds range from 2.70 to 3.08 for a Liverpool victory, 2.28 to 2.60 for the draw, and 2.10 to 2.62 for a Manchester City win. The narrow margins reflect the traditional weight of Anfield, but the underlying numbers favor the visitors. Our Liverpool vs Manchester City prediction is a Manchester City win, though a draw would not be a surprise. Based on the stats, Cityโs relentless form and Liverpoolโs home struggles tip the balance.
Liverpool vs Manchester City โ FAQ
- Who will win Liverpool vs Manchester City?
- Manchester City is the most likely winner with a 45% probability. Liverpool has a 25% chance, and the draw is rated at 30%. Cityโs perfect away record and Liverpoolโs failure to win at home this season are the key factors.
- What is the win probability for Manchester City?
- Manchester City has a 45% chance of winning. This is based on their five-match winning streak, two away league wins without conceding, and a recent head-to-head edge (three wins in the last five meetings).
- When is the Liverpool vs Manchester City match?
- The match is on October 11, 2026, at 16:30 local time. It will be played at Anfield in Liverpool and is a Premier League fixture.
- What are the odds for the match?
- Odds vary across bookmakers. A Liverpool home win is priced between 2.70 and 3.08, the draw between 2.28 and 2.60, and a Manchester City away win between 2.10 and 2.62. The market sees the game as very close.
- What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Manchester City?
- In 38 all-time meetings, Liverpool have 13 home wins, there have been 10 draws, and Manchester City have 15 away wins. The last five matches saw City win three times (including a 4-0 FA Cup victory) and Liverpool win twice.