Livingston - Arbroath prediction 24 October 2026

The Livingston vs Arbroath prediction previews this Scottish Championship fixture on Oct 24, 2026, at 15:00. Based on the available stats and bookmaker odds, Livingston enter the match as the clear favorite, with an estimated 59% win probability.

Team Form

Livingston's recent form has been inconsistent, with two draws, two defeats, and a single win in their last five outings (D,L,L,W,D). Their most recent match ended in a 0-0 away draw at Dunfermline on Oct 17. At home, they suffered back-to-back 1-2 defeats against Partick Thistle and Ayr United, before which they drew 2-2 with Inverness CT.

Arbroath are struggling for results. Their last five matches have returned four defeats and one win (L,L,L,W,L). On the road, they have lost three consecutive away games without scoring: 2-0 at Inverness CT, 3-0 at Partick Thistle, and 1-0 at Stenhousemuir. Their sole victory in this run was a 2-1 home win against Queens Park.

Head-to-Head Record

In the single head-to-head meeting available, Arbroath hold a 1-0 advantage. The match took place on Aug 29, 2026, in the Championship, where Arbroath secured a 1-0 home victory over Livingston. The overall H2H record stands at 0 wins for Livingston, 1 win for Arbroath, and 0 draws.

League Table Positions

Livingston sit 5th in the overall Championship standings with 14 points from 11 matches (4 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, 14 goals scored, 11 conceded). At home, they are ranked 7th with 7 points from 6 games (2 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses).

Arbroath are placed 8th overall with 11 points from 11 matches (3 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and a goal difference of -10 with 7 scored and 17 conceded). Their away form places them towards the lower end of the table, having lost three of their recent travels without finding the net.

Win Probability: Livingston or Arbroath?

Calculating the win probabilities using the inverse of the average odds — home 1.335, draw 2.52, away 6.625 — and normalizing to remove the bookmaker margin gives a baseline of approximately 69% for a Livingston win, 25% for the draw, and 11% for an Arbroath win. Adjusting this for the teams' recent form, head-to-head record, and league table positions, Livingston's real chances dip slightly while Arbroath's increase a touch. The poor away form of Arbroath and their low goal output (7 goals in 11 matches) strengthen the home favorite's case despite Livingston's own mixed home form.

The final assessment: Livingston has a 59% chance of winning, the draw is at 24%, and Arbroath has a 17% chance.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers heavily favor Livingston. The available pre-match odds show home win prices ranging from 1.33 to 1.35. The draw is priced around 2.50–2.60, and an Arbroath away victory is a long shot at 6.00–7.50.

Taking into account the stats, Livingston's superior league position, and Arbroath's abysmal recent away record, the Livingston vs Arbroath prediction leans towards a home win. Arbroath did win the reverse fixture, but Livingston playing at home with a higher probability changes the dynamic. A 1-0 or 2-0 home scoreline appears the most likely outcome based on the data.