Raith Rovers - Livingston prediction 25 September 2026

Our Raith Rovers vs Livingston prediction for September 25, 2026, in the Scottish Championship points towards a narrow home advantage. We give Raith Rovers a 38% win probability, a draw 34%, and Livingston a 28% chance. The bookmakers' odds and the team’s dominant home record make Raith the slight favourite, but Livingston’s strong head-to-head history means a competitive contest is guaranteed.

Team Form

Raith Rovers enter this match in excellent shape. Their last five outings (W3 D1 L1) highlight a solid defensive structure—four clean sheets in that run. The most recent results:

• Sep 19: Partick Thistle 0-0 Raith Rovers (A)
• Sep 12: Raith Rovers 4-0 Arbroath (H)
• Sep 5: Inverness CT 0-2 Raith Rovers (A)
• Aug 28: Dunfermline 1-0 Raith Rovers (A)
• Aug 22: Raith Rovers 2-0 Ayr United (H)

At Stark’s Park, they remain unbeaten with two wins and a draw, scoring seven goals and conceding only one. That home fortress will be vital.

Livingston’s recent form has been mixed, with two wins, two defeats and a draw in their last five matches:

• Sep 19: Livingston 2-2 Inverness CT (H)
• Sep 11: Greenock Morton 1-4 Livingston (A)
• Sep 4: Livingston 0-1 Stenhousemuir (H)
• Aug 29: Arbroath 1-0 Livingston (A)
• Aug 22: Livingston 2-0 Dunfermline (H)

The away numbers show inconsistency: an impressive 4-1 win at Morton, but a 0-1 loss at Arbroath. Livingston have kept just one clean sheet in their last five away games across all competitions.

Head-to-Head Record

Historically, Livingston have dominated this fixture. Out of the last seven meetings in all competitions, Livingston have won four, Raith Rovers one, and two have ended level. The most recent five encounters:

• Mar 5, 2025: Livingston 0-0 Raith Rovers (Championship)
• Dec 28, 2024: Raith Rovers 2-1 Livingston (Championship)
• Oct 26, 2024: Livingston 2-1 Raith Rovers (Championship)
• Jan 20, 2024: Livingston 2-1 Raith Rovers (FA Cup)
• Apr 3, 2021: Livingston 1-1 Raith Rovers (FA Cup)

The visitors have won three of those five, showing they know how to get a result against Raith—even at Stark’s Park.

League Table Positions

Raith Rovers sit 2nd in the Championship with 14 points from seven games (4 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss). Their goal difference of +8 (11 scored, 3 conceded) is the joint best in the division. Livingston are 5th with 10 points (3 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses; 10 for, 7 against).

The home/away split is even more revealing. Raith are 3rd in the home table (7 points from 3 games, 7-1 goals), while Livingston rank 7th in the away table with just 3 points from 3 road games (4 scored, 4 conceded). The league data strongly favours the hosts.

Win Probability: Raith Rovers or Livingston?

We assign Raith Rovers a 38% chance of winning, the draw 34%, and Livingston a 28% chance. These percentages are based on the implied odds from multiple bookmakers, adjusted for recent form and head-to-head data.

Raith’s home form is the deciding factor: unbeaten with a rock-solid defence. The odds see a draw as a very realistic result (some books price it as low as 2.10), and Livingston’s historical edge (4 wins in 7 H2H) cannot be ignored. Still, Raith’s higher league position and momentum give them the best chance, albeit a narrow one.

Raith Rovers vs Livingston Betting Tips & Odds

The bookmaker odds for this match show a tight market. Home win prices range from 2.25 to 2.45, the draw from 2.10 to 3.27, and an away win from 2.79 to 3.20. The low draw odds on some lines underline the expectation of a balanced game.

Based on the stats, our match prediction leans towards a home win or draw double chance. Raith Rovers’ clean sheet potential at home makes under 2.5 goals also worth considering. However, given Livingston’s lively attack (10 goals in 7 games), both teams to score could appear if the visitors break through early.