Livorno - Grosseto prediction 16 October 2026

The Livorno vs Grosseto prediction for this Serie C clash on October 16, 2026, at 19:30 points to a tight, low-margin contest where the draw holds the highest probability. Based on odds, head-to-head history, and recent form, Livorno has a 30% chance of winning, the draw sits at 45%, and Grosseto has a 25% chance.

Team Form

Livorno come into this match with a mixed bag of results at home. Their last five outings show two wins, two draws, and one defeat: a 1-1 draw at Forli, a 0-1 loss to Pescara, a 3-2 win over Pianese, a 1-1 draw at Guidonia Montecelio, and a 3-2 victory against Vado. They have scored eight goals and conceded seven in that span, highlighting both attacking threat and defensive vulnerability.

Grosseto’s recent form across all venues reads three wins, one draw, and one loss. Their last five results: a 3-2 away win at Vis Pesaro, a 1-3 home loss to Sambenedettese, a 4-0 away thrashing of ASD Pineto Calcio, a 2-0 home win over Perugia, and a 2-2 home draw with Campobasso. The away side has been particularly potent on the road, netting seven goals in their last two away trips.

Head-to-Head Record

The history between these two sides heavily favors stalemates. In the last five meetings, four have ended in draws and Grosseto have won once. That sole victory came back in November 2020, a 1-0 home win for Grosseto in Serie C. The most recent encounter, in January 2025, finished 0-0. Three other clashes—in January 2024, September 2023, and February 2023—all ended 1-1. The overall H2H record: 0 Livorno wins, 4 draws, 1 Grosseto win.

League Table Positions

Neither Livorno nor Grosseto appear in the top 12 of the Serie C standings provided, suggesting both are positioned in the lower half of the table. The league is led by Cittadella with 24 points from 9 games. The absence of these teams from the upper echelons indicates a competitive but inconsistent campaign for both, which aligns with their recent form patterns.

Win Probability: Livorno or Grosseto?

After normalizing the bookmaker odds and adjusting for team form, head-to-head trends, and home advantage, the outcome probabilities are: Livorno win 30%, draw 45%, Grosseto win 25%. The draw is the clear standout, driven by four draws in the last five H2H meetings and odds that price the stalemate as short as 2.15. Livorno’s home edge and Grosseto’s away scoring punch keep the win chances for both sides alive, but the numbers strongly point to a share of the points.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see the draw as the most likely result, offering odds around 2.15. A Livorno home win is priced at approximately 2.71, while a Grosseto away victory sits at 3.20. These odds reflect the tight nature of this fixture. Based on the stats, the Livorno vs Grosseto prediction is a low-scoring draw. The H2H record, the odds, and the inconsistent form of both teams all support a bet on the stalemate. For betting tips, the draw no bet or under 2.5 goals markets may also hold value given the history of 1-1 scorelines.