Ljutomer - SD Videm prediction 28 October 2026

The Ljutomer vs SD Videm prediction for October 28, 2026, in Slovenia's 3 SNL points towards a close contest, but SD Videm enters as the favorite with approximately a 40% win probability based on form and league standing. Ljutomer desperately needs a result at home, with bookmakers and recent stats shaping this betting preview.

Team Form

Ljutomer is in dreadful shape. They have lost four of their last five matches (L, L, L, L, D), most recently a 0-2 home defeat to Carda Martjanci on October 10. They failed to score in two of those losses and have managed just a single point from a 1-1 draw at Korotan Prevalje on September 19. Goals have been a problem, with only 2 scored across the five-game stretch.

SD Videm's form is much stronger. They are unbeaten in two, with back-to-back wins (W, W, L, D, D). A 2-0 away victory at NK Podvinci on October 10 and a 1-0 home win over Sampion Celje on October 4 showed defensive improvement. Earlier draws against SD Hajdina (2-2) and Odranci (3-3) prove they can score, with 2 goals per game across the last five.

Head-to-Head Record

Historically, Ljutomer leads the H2H with 5 wins to SD Videm's 2, alongside 1 draw. The most recent meeting on May 23, 2026, was a goal-fest won 6-4 by Ljutomer at home. However, prior to that, SD Videm had taken 5 points from 3 matches, including a 2-2 away draw in November 2025 and two home wins in 2023 and 2022. Notably, 4 of the last 5 H2H games saw over 4.5 goals.

League Table Positions

Ljutomer sits 12th (last) in the 3 SNL table with 8 points from 10 games (2W, 2D, 6L), having scored only 12 and conceded 16. At home, they are not ranked in the top 8. SD Videm is 7th overall with 14 points (4W, 2D, 4L) and a negative goal difference (17:19). They rank 8th at home and 6th away with 2 wins and 3 losses on the road, indicating an inconsistent but more reliable profile than their hosts.

Win Probability: Ljutomer or SD Videm?

Converting the average odds (Home: 3.13, Draw: 2.56, Away: 2.36) to implied probabilities and removing the bookmaker margin (~5.5%) yields a base chance of roughly Ljutomer 30%, Draw 36%, SD Videm 34%. Adjusting for Ljutomer's abysmal form (0.2 points per game lately) and SD Videm's stronger away record and overall league position, we shift probability toward the visitors. Our final win probability assessment: Ljutomer has a 28% chance of winning, the draw stands at 34%, and SD Videm has a 38% chance. SD Videm is therefore the more likely winner, though a stalemate is a significant possibility given the hosts' desperation.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' pre-match odds range from home 3.00 to 3.30, draw 2.50 to 2.62, and away 2.30 to 2.40. The best available away price of 2.40 reflects SD Videm as a marginal favorite. With the huge contrast in momentum — Ljutomer's four-match losing home streak versus SD Videm's two straight wins — the value leans toward the away side. Based on the stats, the most realistic outcome is an away win, but given the head-to-head scoring history, both teams to score is also an angle. We predict SD Videm to edge a tight match.