Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki - LKS Lodz prediction 19 September 2026

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs LKS Lodz prediction for the I Liga clash on September 19, 2026, at 13:30. Based on the latest form, head-to-head record, and bookmaker odds, LKS Lodz holds a 40% win probability, the draw sits at 35%, and Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki has a 25% chance of winning. The away team enters as a slight favorite, but the match could easily see a stalemate.

Team Form

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki comes into this fixture with a mixed run of results. In their last five matches across all competitions, they recorded one win, two draws, and two losses. The sequence reads: a 3–2 away loss to Unia Skierniewice, a 1–0 home win over Warta Poznan, a 3–1 cup defeat at Podhale Nowy Targ, a 2–2 home draw with Bruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza, and a 2–2 draw at Polonia Bytom. That form shows some vulnerability, especially in defense.

LKS Lodz, on the other hand, has been more consistent. Their last five matches: a 2–1 away win at Puszcza Niepolomice, a 1–1 draw at Arka Gdynia, a 1–0 cup loss at GKS Tychy, a 0–0 draw at Odra Opole, and a commanding 4–0 home victory over Stal Mielec. With two wins, two draws, and only one defeat, the visitors carry an unbeaten away record in recent I Liga trips.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last three meetings between these sides, the head-to-head record is perfectly balanced: one win for Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki, one draw, and one win for LKS Lodz. The most recent encounter on May 7, 2026, saw LKS Lodz win 3–2 at home. Before that, they played a 0–0 draw on April 13, 2026, and on September 29, 2025, Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki triumphed 3–0 at home. The H2H data suggests no clear dominance, with both capable of winning.

League Table Positions

LKS Lodz sits top of the I Liga table with 15 points from eight matches (4 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss, 13 goals scored, 7 conceded). Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki is right behind in second place, also on 15 points with an identical 4–3–1 record, but with a slightly inferior goal difference (13 for, 8 against). Notably, LKS Lodz is undefeated away from home this season (1 win, 3 draws, 4 goals scored, 3 conceded), while Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki remains unbeaten at home (2 wins, 2 draws, 5 goals, 3 conceded). The minimal gap in the standings reinforces the expectation of a tight contest.

Win Probability: Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki or LKS Lodz?

The probability calculation starts from the average bookmaker odds, which imply roughly: Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki win 28%, draw 36%, LKS Lodz win 36%. Adjusting for recent form and home/away factors, we see LKS Lodz’s superior recent stretch and their solid away record nudging the away win higher. The final estimation: a 25% chance for a home win, a 35% probability of a draw, and a 40% likelihood of an away victory. Therefore, LKS Lodz is more likely to win, although the high draw probability reflects the balanced nature of this matchup.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers set odds around 3.00–3.25 for a Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki win, 2.22–3.30 for the draw, and 2.02–2.75 for an LKS Lodz win. The shortest average odds are for the draw and the away win, indicating that the market sees this as an open game with a slight lean toward LKS Lodz. Based on the stats, the prediction is a tight encounter with a higher probability of an away win or a stalemate. A draw would not surprise, given both teams’ unbeaten records in their respective home/away splits.