Wexford FC - Longford Town prediction 2 October 2026

The Wexford FC vs Longford Town prediction for the Ireland Republic First Division match on Oct 2 at 19:45 points to an away win, with Longford Town holding a 42% chance of victory based on head-to-head dominance and league position. Wexford FC, playing at home, has a 35% win probability, while the draw sits at 23%. Bookmakers see this as a tight contest, but the historical data heavily favors the visitors.

Team Form

Wexford FC's recent form is inconsistent, with results reading L, W, L, W, L in their last five matches. Their most recent outing was a 1-0 away loss to Kerry on Sep 25. At home, they managed a 3-1 win over Cobh Ramblers on Sep 18 but suffered a 1-3 defeat to Finn Harps on Sep 11. Longford Town's form shows W, W, L, L, D. They come into this match off a 2-1 home win against Cork City on Sep 26 and a 1-0 away win at Finn Harps on Sep 18. However, they lost 0-2 at home to Treaty United on Sep 12 and 0-1 to Kerry on Sep 5.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record strongly favors Longford Town. In 33 previous meetings, Longford Town have won 24 times, Wexford FC have won 6, and 3 matches ended in draws. The last five encounters underline this trend: Longford Town won 2-1 on Jul 25, 2026, 2-1 on May 8, 2026, and 1-0 on Jun 20, 2025. Wexford FC's sole recent win was a 2-0 away victory on Mar 21, 2026, while one match ended 2-2 on Aug 30, 2025.

League Table Positions

In the First Division overall standings, Longford Town sit 4th with 47 points from 33 matches (13 wins, 8 draws, 12 losses). Wexford FC are 8th with 40 points (11 wins, 7 draws, 15 losses). At home, Wexford FC rank 7th with 27 points from 16 games. Longford Town's away form places them 4th with 18 points from 16 matches. The 7-point gap and superior away record give Longford Town a clear edge.

Win Probability: Wexford FC or Longford Town?

Based on the available odds (home: 2.25, draw: 2.30, away: 4.00), the inverse probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin are adjusted using head-to-head and form data. Wexford FC has a 35% chance of winning, the draw is at 23%, and Longford Town has a 42% chance. The adjustment reflects Longford Town's 24 wins in 33 H2H meetings, their higher league position, and better recent away form, despite the raw odds implying a closer match. Longford Town is the more likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer odds of 2.25 for a Wexford FC home win, 2.30 for the draw, and 4.00 for a Longford Town away win. These odds suggest a tight match, but the stats tell a different story. Based on the head-to-head record and league table, Longford Town are the value pick. Our Wexford FC vs Longford Town prediction is an away win, though a draw cannot be ruled out given Wexford's home capability.