Altglienicke - Luckenwalde prediction 23 October 2026

The Altglienicke vs Luckenwalde prediction for this Regionalliga match on October 23, 2026, at 18:00 points to a home win. Based on recent form and head-to-head history, Altglienicke has a 60% chance of winning, while Luckenwalde sits at just 15%, with the draw at 25%.

Team Form

Altglienicke come into this match with a mixed but overall positive recent record. Their last five results show three wins followed by two losses (W, W, W, L, L). The three victories all came away from home – against Preussen Berlin (3-1), Magdeburg II (1-0), and FSV Zwickau (2-1). The two defeats were a 0-2 home loss to Chemnitzer FC and a 0-1 loss at Carl Zeiss Jena. That home defeat is a slight concern, but the team has proven it can win on the road.

Luckenwalde are in poor form. Their last five matches have yielded four losses and one draw (L, L, L, L, D). The only point came in a friendly against Eintracht Mahlsdorf (1-1). In competitive fixtures, they lost at home to Carl Zeiss Jena (1-2), at home to SV Babelsberg 03 (2-3), away to Greifswalder SV (1-3), and at home to BFC Dynamo (0-2). Defensive frailties and a lack of wins make them clear underdogs here.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head record heavily favours the home side in this fixture. Across all meetings, the home team has won 10 times, with 4 draws and only 1 away win. In the last five encounters, Altglienicke have won three, Luckenwalde one, and one ended level. The most recent clash on March 11, 2026, saw Luckenwalde win 2-0 away at Altglienicke – a result that will give them some hope. However, Altglienicke won the previous two meetings (3-1 and 4-1) and also triumphed 3-2 at home in February 2024.

Win Probability: Altglienicke or Luckenwalde?

We calculate the win probabilities as follows: Altglienicke 60%, Draw 25%, Luckenwalde 15%. This assessment is based on the available data – team form, head-to-head record, and home advantage. Altglienicke’s three wins in their last five games contrast sharply with Luckenwalde’s zero wins in the same period. The historical H2H shows a 66.7% home win rate (10 out of 15 matches), and even though Luckenwalde won the most recent meeting, the overall trend strongly supports the home side. The draw gets a solid 25% because four of the 15 H2H matches ended level, and Altglienicke’s recent home loss introduces some uncertainty. Luckenwalde’s poor form and the rarity of away wins in this fixture justify the low 15%.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ odds are not currently available for this fixture. However, based on the stats, Altglienicke are the clear favourites to win. Their superior form and the historical home dominance in this matchup make them the most likely winners. Our Altglienicke vs Luckenwalde prediction is a home victory, with the 1X2 market pointing firmly towards an Altglienicke win. A draw cannot be ruled out given the recent H2H results, but Luckenwalde’s chances of an away win appear slim.