CSKA Sofia - Ludogorets Razgrad prediction 26 October 2026

The CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets Razgrad prediction for October 26, 2026, in Bulgaria's 1st League sees this titanic clash as remarkably even. With both sides unbeaten in the league and separated by just one point, this who-will-win analysis points to a marginal advantage for the home side based on a higher-scoring form, though a draw is a very strong probability. The match kicks off at 17:30.

Team Form

CSKA Sofia enter this fixture with a recent form record of D, W, L, W, D across all competitions. Their latest outing was a 2-2 draw away to FC Nordsjaelland in the UEFA Conference League. In the domestic league, they remain a force, sitting 2nd with 27 points and an unbeaten record of 8 wins and 3 draws, having scored 27 goals while conceding only 9. Notably, they boast a perfect home record in the 1st League, with 5 wins from 5 matches, scoring 17 goals.

Ludogorets Razgrad are in scintillating form, with their last five results reading W, W, W, W, D. They are coming off a dominant 3-0 cup victory against Beroe Stara Zagora and a 5-0 league thrashing of FC Arda Kardzhali. They sit 3rd in the table with 26 points from 10 games, also unbeaten with 8 wins and 2 draws. Their away form is strong, recording 3 wins and a draw, scoring 8 goals and conceding 4.

Head-to-Head Record

The historical head-to-head record between these two Bulgarian giants in the 1st League heavily favors the away side. In 52 previous meetings, Ludogorets Razgrad have won 18 times, CSKA Sofia have won 9, and there have been 25 draws. The most recent encounters underline a competitive edge for Ludogorets: they won 1-0 at home on May 25, 2026, and 3-0 at home on March 14, 2026. However, CSKA Sofia did secure a 1-0 home win on May 3, 2026, and a 2-1 away cup win on April 21, 2026.

League Table Positions

This matchup is a top-of-the-table six-pointer. CSKA Sofia are 2nd with 27 points from 11 games, while Ludogorets Razgrad are 3rd with 26 points from 10 games. A win for either side would see them leapfrog current leaders Levski Sofia. CSKA's home strength is formidable (2nd on the home table), but Ludogorets' away resilience is equally impressive (3rd on the away table), setting the stage for a tactical and high-stakes encounter.

Win Probability: CSKA Sofia or Ludogorets Razgrad?

Based on a comprehensive analysis of the available data, we calculate the win probabilities for this match as follows: CSKA Sofia has a 39% chance of winning, the draw is at 36%, and Ludogorets Razgrad has a 25% chance. This calculation is built on the inverse of the bookmakers' average odds as a base, adjusted for real-world performance factors. The league table shows a near-identical record, but CSKA's perfect home scoring rate and the fact they are playing at home give them a slight edge. However, Ludogorets' superior long-term H2H record and current four-match winning run inject significant draw potential, making a stalemate almost as likely as a home win.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers for this 1st League fixture present a very tight market. The best available odds show a home win for CSKA Sofia at 2.80, a draw at a very short 2.10, and an away win for Ludogorets Razgrad at 3.00. The odds clearly frame this as a match where the draw is a distinct favorite, with the outright results rated much more closely. Based on the stats, the draw no bet or double chance markets offer the most statistical value here. Our prediction is that CSKA Sofia are the narrow favorites to win, but the most probable single outcome is a scoring draw.