Ludogorets Razgrad - Septemvri Sofia prediction 14 September 2026

The Ludogorets Razgrad vs Septemvri Sofia prediction for the Bulgarian 1st League clash on September 14, 2026, clearly favors the home side. Based on odds, head-to-head dominance, and current form, Ludogorets Razgrad are the overwhelming favorites with a 70% win probability, while the draw is at 20% and Septemvri Sofia have a 10% chance.

Team Form

Ludogorets Razgrad enter this match unbeaten in their last five league games, with two wins and two draws in their most recent outings. Their form reads: W, D, D, W, W. At home, they have lost only once this season and boast a strong defensive record at Huvepharma Arena. Septemvri Sofia, on the other hand, have been inconsistent: L, D, W, W, L. They have shown flashes of quality but lack the consistency to threaten a top side away from home.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record is one-sided. In 20 meetings across all competitions, Ludogorets Razgrad have won 19 times, with only 1 draw and zero wins for Septemvri Sofia. Recent encounters include a 5-0 home win in July 2025 and a 2-0 away win in November 2025. The most recent match was a friendly in July 2026, which Ludogorets won 1-0.

League Table Positions

Ludogorets Razgrad sit second in the 1st League with 20 points from eight matches, trailing leaders Levski Sofia by four points. They have a goal difference of +8. Septemvri Sofia are ninth with eight points from eight games, having scored just seven goals and conceded 13. The 12-point gap underlines the difference in quality between the two sides.

Win Probability: Ludogorets Razgrad or Septemvri Sofia?

Using the bookmaker odds as a base (average home win odds around 1.50), the implied probability for a Ludogorets win is close to 55% after removing margin. However, adjusting for Ludogorets' perfect head-to-head record (19 wins, 1 draw), their strong home form (3-1-0 at Huvepharma Arena), and Septemvri's poor away record (1 win in 4 away league matches), the actual probability shifts higher. Our final probabilities are: Ludogorets Razgrad 70%, draw 20%, Septemvri Sofia 10%. Ludogorets are on a run of two consecutive league wins and have not lost to Septemvri in any of the last 20 meetings, making them the clear choice to win.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers list Ludogorets Razgrad as heavy favorites, with home win odds ranging from 1.25 to 1.57 across various outlets. The draw is priced around 2.50–2.96, while an away win is a distant 7.50–15.00. Based on the stats, form, and H2H record, the most likely outcome is a comfortable home victory. Expect Ludogorets to control the game and secure three points at Huvepharma Arena.