Puerto Nuevo Reserves - Lujan Reserves prediction 17 September 2026

Our Puerto Nuevo Reserves vs Lujan Reserves prediction for September 17, 2026, at 14:00 in the Primera B Metropolitana Reserve points to an away win. Lujan Reserves have a 55% chance of winning, while the draw is at 25% and a home victory for Puerto Nuevo Reserves sits at just 20%.

Team Form

Puerto Nuevo Reserves come into this match with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five outings (W-D-L-L-W). Their most recent fixture was a 1-0 away win against CA Atlas Reserves on September 8. At home, they drew 0-0 with CSCyD Muniz Reserves and lost 1-3 to Deportivo Espanol Reserves, showing inconsistency.

Lujan Reserves are in red-hot form, having won all of their last five matches. They scored 17 goals in that run (5W), including a 6-1 demolition of CSCyD Muniz Reserves and a 6-1 away win at Juventud Unida San Miguel Reserves. Their defense has been solid, conceding only three goals in those five games.

Head-to-Head Record

The teams have met twice before, with Lujan Reserves winning both encounters. On May 28, 2026, Lujan Reserves thrashed Puerto Nuevo Reserves 4-0 at home, and on August 26, 2025, they won 3-1. Puerto Nuevo Reserves have never beaten Lujan Reserves (0 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses).

Win Probability: Puerto Nuevo or Lujan?

Using the bookmaker odds as a base (home 3.40, draw 2.10, away 2.88) and normalizing to remove the margin gives initial probabilities of 26.3% for a Puerto Nuevo Reserves win, 42.6% for a draw, and 31.1% for a Lujan Reserves win. However, after accounting for Lujan's perfect five-match winning streak and the 2-0 head-to-head advantage, we adjust the numbers significantly. Lujan Reserves have the strongest chance at 55%, the draw drops to 25%, and Puerto Nuevo Reserves are at 20%. The away side’s attack and historical dominance make them clear favorites.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see a draw as the most likely single result at odds of 2.10. A Lujan Reserves win is priced at 2.88, while a home success for Puerto Nuevo Reserves stands at 3.40. Based on the stats and the adjusted probabilities, the best betting tip is to back Lujan Reserves to win. They are in superior form and have already beaten Puerto Nuevo Reserves twice. Our prediction: Lujan Reserves to claim all three points.