Lunds BK - Trelleborgs FF prediction 16 October 2026

The Lunds BK vs Trelleborgs FF prediction for October 16, 2026, points to a tight Division 1 clash in Sweden. Kick-off is at 18:00, and according to the betting odds and team form, Trelleborgs FF enters as a slight favorite with an estimated 38% win probability, while Lunds BK sits at 34% and the draw at 28%.

Team Form

Lunds BK's recent results show inconsistency, with two wins and three losses in their last five matches (W, L, L, L, W). Their most recent outing ended in a 4-3 home victory against Trollhattan on October 10. Prior to that, they suffered three consecutive defeats: 0-1 at home to Laholms FK, 0-1 at home to Kristianstads FF, and 0-1 away to Atvidabergs FF. Another home win came on September 16, a 2-0 result against Angelholms FF. Notably, three of these last five were home games, where they went 2-2. The defense has registered two clean sheets but also conceded in three matches.

Trelleborgs FF arrives in outstanding form, having won their last five matches in a row (W, W, W, W, W). On October 10, they beat Kristianstads FF 2-0 at home. Before that, they secured a 2-0 away win at BK Olympic, a 4-1 home win over Angelholms FF, a 1-0 away win at Tvaakers IF, and a 4-3 away win at Rosengaard 1917. Across these five games, Trelleborgs FF scored 13 goals and conceded only 4, keeping three clean sheets. Their perfect away record in this sequence (three away wins) highlights a strong travelling momentum.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record across the last three meetings shows Trelleborgs FF with one win and two draws. The most recent Division 1 encounter on August 2, 2026, ended in a 2-2 draw when Trelleborgs FF played at home. In the Cup on August 20, 2025, Lunds BK lost 2-3 at home. An older friendly on March 13, 2019, also finished 1-1. Lunds BK has yet to beat Trelleborgs FF in these recorded matchups, with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 away win for Trelleborgs.

League Table Positions

No exact league table positions are available in the provided data. However, the recent form suggests Trelleborgs FF is likely placed higher in the Division 1 standings. Their five-game winning streak contrasts sharply with Lunds BK's three losses in five, giving the away side a clear momentum edge as the season approaches its final stages.

Win Probability: Lunds BK or Trelleborgs FF?

Based on the supplied odds (home 2.45, draw 3.45, away 2.45), we calculated the implied probabilities by taking the inverse of each odds and normalizing to remove the bookmaker margin. This gave a base draw probability of around 28%. After adjusting for form and head-to-head records, we arrive at these outcome probabilities: Lunds BK has a 34% chance of winning, the draw is at 28%, and Trelleborgs FF has a 38% chance. Trelleborgs FF’s five-match winning streak and an unbeaten H2H record against Lunds BK give them the edge. However, Lunds BK's home advantage and recent high-scoring win keep the match too close to call comfortably. Trelleborgs FF is the more likely winner, but a draw is a very realistic outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

The bookmakers' odds for this Lunds BK vs Trelleborgs FF match are perfectly balanced: a home win is priced at 2.45, a draw at 3.45, and an away win also at 2.45. This indicates the bookmakers see the contest as genuinely even. Considering Trelleborgs FF’s superior form — five straight wins, including three on the road — and their unbeaten H2H run against Lunds BK, the away side holds a statistical advantage. Based on the stats, the safest prediction leans towards a Trelleborgs FF win or draw on the Double Chance, but the final outcome could easily fall on any side. Lunds BK's home capability means they cannot be dismissed.