SD Aucas Quito - Macara prediction 19 September 2026

The SD Aucas Quito vs Macara prediction for this Ecuador Serie A match on Jul 26, 2026, at 18:15 points to a tight contest. Based on odds, form, and head-to-head data, SD Aucas Quito enters as the slight favorite with a 40% win probability, while Macara holds a 22% chance and the draw is estimated at 38%.

Team Form

SD Aucas Quito's last five matches show three wins, one draw, and one loss (W, L, W, W, D). They secured away victories against Tecnico Universitario (1-0) and Deportivo Cuenca (1-0), but suffered a heavy 0-3 home defeat to Independiente Del Valle. Macara's recent form is stronger with four wins and one loss (W, L, W, W, W). They beat Deportivo Cuenca 3-0 at home and won 2-1 against Mushuc Runa, only stumbling 1-2 away to Delfin SC.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last five head-to-head meetings, Macara has dominated with three wins, one draw, and one loss. Notably, Macara won the two most recent clashes at SD Aucas Quito's ground: 2-0 in December 2025 and 4-1 in July 2025. The overall H2H record across all venues stands at 6 home wins for SD Aucas Quito, 7 draws, and 13 away wins for Macara, underlining the visitors' historical edge.

League Table Positions

SD Aucas Quito sits 3rd in the Serie A standings with 35 points from 20 matches (10 wins, 5 draws, 5 losses). Macara is 5th with 29 points from 20 games (8 wins, 5 draws, 7 losses). At home, SD Aucas Quito ranks 4th with 19 points from 10 fixtures (6W, 1D, 3L). Macara's away form places them 6th with 12 points from 10 trips (3W, 3D, 4L). The six-point gap and home advantage favor SD Aucas Quito, but Macara's recent H2H success cannot be ignored.

Win Probability: SD Aucas Quito or Macara?

We calculate the outcome probabilities using the latest odds, adjusted for team form and head-to-head trends. The raw odds imply a home win probability of around 43%, but Macara's strong recent record against SD Aucas Quito and their current four-win form lead us to adjust the figures. Our final win probability assessment: SD Aucas Quito has a 40% chance of winning, the draw is at 38%, and Macara has a 22% chance. While the hosts are still the most likely winner, the data suggests a draw is almost equally probable, and Macara cannot be written off.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds for the full-time result show SD Aucas Quito as the favorite. The best available odds are around 1.83 for a home win, 2.00 for the draw, and 4.33 for an away win. These odds align with the league table positions but may underestimate Macara's H2H resilience. Based on the stats, the most likely outcome is a closely fought draw, but a narrow home win is also a strong possibility. Our SD Aucas Quito vs Macara prediction: a low-scoring affair with a draw or a one-goal margin either way.