Maccabi Haifa - Hapoel Be'er Sheva prediction 26 October 2026

The Maccabi Haifa vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva prediction for October 26, 2026, points towards a home victory at Sammy Ofer Stadium. This Israeli Premier League clash kicks off at 17:00, with Maccabi Haifa holding a calculated win probability of 45%, compared to a 30% chance for the visitors and a 25% likelihood of a draw. Bookmakers and recent form both suggest the hosts are the team to beat.

Team Form

Maccabi Haifa enter this fixture in scintillating form, boasting five consecutive wins across all competitions. Their recent Premier League results include a 2-1 away victory at Maccabi Petah Tikva on October 17, a dominant 4-1 win at Hapoel Jerusalem on October 12, and a 3-2 home success against Ironi Tiberias on September 19. The Greens have been scoring freely, netting 15 goals in their last five league outings, showcasing the attacking firepower that makes them strong favorites.

Hapoel Be'er Sheva's form is more mixed, with three wins and two losses in their last five matches. Their most recent outing ended in a heavy 4-0 defeat at Union Saint-Gilloise in the UEFA Europa League on October 22. Domestically, they responded well with a 2-1 home win over Hapoel Jerusalem on October 18 but also suffered a 2-1 loss at AZ Alkmaar in European action. The Negev side’s away league form remains solid, but the heavy recent travel schedule could be a factor.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head record across 42 previous meetings shows Maccabi Haifa with 20 wins and Hapoel Be'er Sheva with 17, alongside 5 draws. Recent encounters, however, reveal a fascinating pattern. Hapoel Be'er Sheva have won three of the last five, including a 1-0 victory at Sammy Ofer Stadium on May 6, 2026, and a 4-1 home thrashing on May 12, 2025. Maccabi Haifa’s sole recent win was an emphatic 5-2 away victory on May 23, 2026. This recent history adds an element of unpredictability to the betting tips.

League Table Positions

In the Israeli Premier League standings, Maccabi Haifa sit 3rd with 18 points from 7 matches (6 wins, 1 loss), scoring 18 and conceding 9. Hapoel Be'er Sheva are just behind in 4th place with 16 points from 7 games (5 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), having scored 12 and conceded 8. The home advantage is stark: Maccabi Haifa have a perfect home record with 3 wins from 3 at Sammy Ofer Stadium. In contrast, while Hapoel Be'er Sheva are yet to lose away in the league (3 wins from 3), their challenging European away trips may test that resilience.

Win Probability: Maccabi Haifa or Hapoel Be'er Sheva?

Based on the available odds, current form, and home advantage, we calculate the outcome probabilities as follows: Maccabi Haifa win – 45%, Draw – 25%, Hapoel Be'er Sheva win – 30%. The calculation uses the inverse of the average best odds (home 2.42, draw 2.40, away 2.92) to establish a raw probability base, which is then normalized to remove the bookmaker margin. Maccabi Haifa’s perfect five-match winning streak and 100% home league record significantly boost their chances beyond the raw odds. Hapoel Be'er Sheva’s strong away league form keeps their probability competitive, but the heavy European schedule and recent head-to-head defeats in Haifa reduce their likelihood of an away win. The draw probability remains a solid 25%, reflecting how tight these encounters often are.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers make Maccabi Haifa the clear favorite, with odds ranging from 2.30 to 2.60 for the home win. The draw is priced between 2.40 and 3.60, while an away victory for Hapoel Be'er Sheva stands between 2.75 and 3.05. Comparing the odds to our calculated win probability suggests the best value might lie in backing the home side. Taking all stats into account, the final prediction is a Maccabi Haifa victory. Their momentum, attacking output, and formidable home form give them the edge over a competitive but potentially fatigued Hapoel Be'er Sheva side.