Hapoel Jerusalem - Maccabi Haifa prediction 12 October 2026

Our Hapoel Jerusalem vs Maccabi Haifa prediction for 12 October 2026 in the Israeli Premier League points firmly towards an away win. Maccabi Haifa are the clear favourites with a 52% win probability, while Hapoel Jerusalem have just an 18% chance and a draw is rated at 30%.

Team Form

Hapoel Jerusalem go into this match with a mixed set of recent results (W-D-W-L-L). They scored 12 goals in their last 5 outings but conceded 12, highlighting defensive issues. The last two matches were a 4‑2 away win against Maccabi Petah Tikva followed by a 2‑2 draw at Ironi Tiberias. At home, a 4‑2 win over Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona was sandwiched between a 2‑5 loss to Maccabi Tel Aviv and another defeat. Overall, they’ve picked up 7 points from 5 games (2W‑1D‑2L) and sit 7th in the league table.

Maccabi Haifa are in much stronger form with four wins in their last five matches (W‑W‑W‑L‑W). They have scored 12 goals and conceded 7 in 5 league appearances. After a 1‑3 away loss at Maccabi Tel Aviv, they bounced back with three consecutive wins – 2‑1 at home to Hapoel Petach Tikva, 4‑0 away at Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona, and a 3‑2 home success against Ironi Tiberias. The 4th‑placed side has 12 points from 5 matches (4W‑0D‑1L), with their only defeat coming on the road.

Head‑to‑Head Record

The history heavily favours Maccabi Haifa: in the overall head‑to‑head, Hapoel Jerusalem have won just 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 against today’s opponents. The last five meetings have been even more telling – four consecutive draws (1‑1, 2‑2, 3‑3, 0‑0) and one Maccabi Haifa victory (2‑1 on 7 January 2024). These numbers underline the visitors’ dominance, but also the tendency for draws when the sides meet.

League Table Positions

Hapoel Jerusalem are 7th in the Premier League with 7 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses; goals 12‑12). They are not among the top eight home teams, meaning their home form ranks lower than many rivals. Maccabi Haifa occupy 4th place with 12 points from 5 games (4 wins, 1 loss; goals 12‑7). Their away record stands at 1 win and 1 loss from 2 journeys, placing them 6th in the away standings. The 5‑point gap and superior goal difference point to a stronger campaign so far for the visitors.

Win Probability: Hapoel Jerusalem or Maccabi Haifa?

Based on bookmaker odds, team form, head‑to‑head record, and league positions, we calculate the probabilities as:

• Hapoel Jerusalem win — 18%
• Draw — 30%
• Maccabi Haifa win — 52%

The odds paint Maccabi Haifa as the favourite (around 1.95 for an away win), and we adjust that upwards slightly due to their superior recent form (4 wins in 5) and a head‑to‑head that shows only 1 Hapoel Jerusalem victory in 10 encounters. Hapoel Jerusalem’s weak home record and defensive fragility make an upset unlikely. Maccabi Haifa are more than twice as likely to take all three points as their hosts.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers have Hapoel Jerusalem priced as high as 5.17 for a home win, with draws between 2.40 and 4.33 and Maccabi Haifa available at 1.66 to 1.95. The odds clearly indicate that the visitors are expected to win. Taking into account the head‑to‑head run of four straight draws, the match could be closer than the odds suggest, but Maccabi Haifa’s form and class should prevail. Our Hapoel Jerusalem vs Maccabi Haifa prediction is: Maccabi Haifa win, with a 52% chance of success. A draw is the second most likely outcome, while a home win would be a major shock.