Hapoel Ironi Karmiel - Maccabi Ironi Kfar Yona prediction 12 October 2026

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel vs Maccabi Ironi Kfar Yona prediction for the Israel Cup match on Oct 12, 2026, at 16:30. Based on the latest odds and team form, Hapoel Ironi Karmiel is the clear favorite with a 65% win probability. The home side's unbeaten run gives them a significant edge over an away team struggling for results.

Team Form

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel come into this cup tie in solid shape. Their last five matches in League Alef show two wins and three draws (W, D, D, D, W). Most recently, they beat Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel 1-0 at home on Oct 8. Before that, they drew 0-0 away to Hapoel Um El Fahem, 1-1 at home to Ironi Nesher, and 1-1 away to Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad. A 3-0 home win over Hapoel Bnei Musmus on Sep 10 completes the run. The team has kept two clean sheets in that period and scored in four of the five games.

Maccabi Ironi Kfar Yona's recent form is far less convincing. Their last three results are L, L, W. The two defeats both came in cup competitions: a 0-2 home loss to Hapoel Daliyat Karmel on Sep 15, 2026, and a 2-3 home loss to Beitar Ramat Gan on Aug 30, 2025. The lone win was a 4-2 home victory over Sport Club Tel-Aviv way back on Dec 30, 2016, in Liga Leumit. With only one win in their last three outings and no competitive win in over a year, the away side looks short on confidence.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no head-to-head record between these two teams. The data shows zero previous meetings, with 0 home wins, 0 draws, and 0 away wins. This cup match will be their first ever encounter.

Win Probability: Hapoel Ironi Karmiel or Maccabi Ironi Kfar Yona?

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel has a 65% chance of winning, the draw is at 22%, and Maccabi Ironi Kfar Yona has a 13% chance. These probabilities are calculated from the average bookmaker odds (home 1.28, draw 3.40, away 4.46) after removing the margin, then adjusted upward for the home side based on their superior recent form and home advantage. The away team's poor results and lack of recent wins further reduce their chances.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Hapoel Ironi Karmiel as the strong favorite. The available 1X2 odds range from 1.12 to 1.39 for a home win, 2.65 to 4.50 for the draw, and 1.12 to 7.00 for an away win. The outlier odds of 1.12 for both home and away from one bookmaker likely reflect a pricing anomaly, but the consensus is clear: the home team is expected to progress. Based on the stats, the most likely outcome is a Hapoel Ironi Karmiel victory. The draw is the next most probable result, while an away win would be a major upset.