FC Jerusalem - Maccabi Yavne prediction 24 September 2026

The FC Jerusalem vs Maccabi Yavne prediction for September 24, 2026, in League Alef points to a home advantage. Our analysis gives FC Jerusalem a 45% win probability, while Maccabi Yavne sits at 27% and the draw at 28%. The match kicks off at 17:00 (Israel time) and all signs point to the hosts as the team to beat.

Team Form

FC Jerusalem comes into this match unbeaten in their last five outings across all competitions. Their recent results read W, D, W, D, W, including a solid 3-1 away win at Agudat Sport Nordia Jerusalem on September 18 and a 4-1 thrashing of Dimona at home. The only minor blemish was a 1-1 home draw with Maccabi Ashdod, but overall the attack has been firing and the defense mostly reliable.

Maccabi Yavne's last five matches show D, L, W, W, D – a slightly more mixed bag. They drew 0-0 at home to Hapoel Herzliya on September 18, lost 1-0 away to Dimona, but previously hammered Hapoel Azor 3-0 at home. Away from home, the side has been less consistent, with that loss and a high-scoring 4-2 win at MK Kfar Saba 1928 back in February illustrating both their potential and their vulnerability on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

FC Jerusalem has dominated this fixture historically. In three meetings all in League Alef, they have won two and drawn one – and both wins came when playing at home. They beat Maccabi Yavne 2-0 in December 2025 and 1-0 in March 2025. The only away match, in November 2024, ended in a 3-3 thriller. Overall, FC Jerusalem has kept two clean sheets against Maccabi Yavne at home and never trailed in any of the three H2H contests.

Win Probability: FC Jerusalem or Maccabi Yavne?

Based on bookmaker odds, current form, and the head-to-head record, we calculate the outcome probabilities as follows: FC Jerusalem win – 45%, draw – 28%, Maccabi Yavne win – 27%. The odds market implies a fairly even contest, but after removing the bookmaker margin we see FC Jerusalem as the clear favorite. Their unbeaten recent record and perfect home H2H record against this opponent justify an upward adjustment of around 3 percentage points from the raw odds-based figure, while Maccabi Yavne’s away inconsistency pushes their chance slightly below the 29% initially indicated.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers are offering a range of prices. The best available odds for a home win are as short as 1.68 and as long as 2.10; draws are priced between 2.25 and 3.35; and an away win can be backed at 2.19 to 3.50. These odds confirm that the market sees FC Jerusalem as the most likely winner. Taking all stats into account, our match prediction leans towards a home victory, but the relatively high draw probability suggests that punters should not completely rule out a stalemate.