Madagascar - Tanzania prediction 29 September 2026

Madagascar vs Tanzania prediction: this African Cup of Nations match is played on Sep 29 at 14:00. Based on odds, team form and head-to-head, Madagascar has a 38% chance of winning, the draw is at 37%, and Tanzania has a 25% chance.

Team Form

Madagascar

Madagascar's last five results are L, L, D, W, W. Their latest fixtures include a 2-1 loss to Nigeria on Sep 25, a 4-0 loss to Morocco on Jun 2, a 1-1 draw at Equatorial Guinea on Mar 31, a 5-2 win at Kyrgyzstan on Mar 28, and a 2-0 home win over Equatorial Guinea on Nov 17. The two recent wins came against Kyrgyzstan and Equatorial Guinea, while the losses were against Nigeria and Morocco.

Tanzania

Tanzania's last five results are L, W, L, L, D. They lost 0-2 at home to Guinea-Bissau on Sep 25, won 6-0 at Macao on Mar 29, lost 0-1 at home to Liechtenstein on Mar 26, lost 0-1 at Morocco on Jan 4, and drew 1-1 at home with Tunisia on Dec 30. Their only win in this run came against Macao, with three defeats and one draw in the other four matches.

Head-to-Head Record

Madagascar and Tanzania have met three times in the supplied data, with the record exactly even: one Madagascar win, one draw, and one Tanzania win.

• Tanzania 0-1 Madagascar, Friendly International, Jun 7, 2025
• Madagascar 1-1 Tanzania, World Cup Qualification Africa, Nov 14, 2021
• Tanzania 3-2 Madagascar, African Cup of Nations, Sep 7, 2021

Win Probability: Madagascar or Tanzania?

The probabilities start from normalized inverse 1X2 odds across six bookmakers: Madagascar 35.5%, draw 40.4%, Tanzania 24.2%. The head-to-head record is even, so it does not shift the probabilities strongly. We then adjust for home advantage and recent form because Madagascar have two wins in five matches while Tanzania have one win and three losses in five.

• Madagascar win: 38%
• Draw: 37%
• Tanzania win: 25%

Conclusion: Madagascar is the more likely winner, but the draw is nearly as probable. On the question of who will win, Madagascar has a narrow edge.

Odds & Match Prediction

The source data includes six 1X2 odds entries. Odds range from 2.30 to 2.49 for Madagascar, 1.85 to 2.89 for the draw, and 3.20 to 3.80 for Tanzania. In raw odds terms the draw is the marginal bookmaker favorite, but our adjusted model makes Madagascar the narrow pick.

Based on the stats, the final Madagascar vs Tanzania prediction is Madagascar to win with low confidence, because the draw probability is almost identical. For betting tips, the safer read is Madagascar or draw double chance, while Madagascar at odds of 2.38 or better is the value angle if you want to back the home team.