Madura United U20 - Bali United Pusam U20 prediction 3 October 2026

Our Madura United U20 vs Bali United Pusam U20 prediction for the Liga 1 U20 match on Oct 3, 2026, is an away victory for Bali United Pusam U20. The game kicks off at 09:00, and based on a dominant head-to-head record and stronger recent form, the visitors hold a 60% win probability.

Team Form

Madura United U20 have managed just one win in their last five outings (W1 D2 L2). Their sequence reads: a 2-1 loss at PSIM Yogyakarta U20 (May 3), a 0-0 draw at the same opponent (May 2), a 1-0 home win over PSM Makassar U20 (Apr 26), a 1-1 home draw with PSM Makassar U20 (Apr 25), and a 0-1 home defeat to Bali United Pusam U20 (Apr 19). They scored only 3 goals across these five matches.

Bali United Pusam U20 come into the fixture with three wins from their last five (W3 L2). Their recent results: a 0-1 away win at Madura United U20 (Apr 19), another 0-1 away win at Madura United U20 (Apr 18), a 2-1 loss at Persis Solo U20 (Feb 15), a 0-2 away win at Persis Solo U20 (Feb 14), and a 1-2 home loss to Borneo Samarinda U20 (Feb 1). They netted 6 goals in this period.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record is completely one-sided. All seven previous meetings have ended in wins for Bali United Pusam U20, with Madura United U20 yet to register a single victory or draw. The last five encounters all finished 1-0 or by a larger margin for Bali, including a 5-1 home win in January 2025. The most recent clash on Apr 19, 2026, saw Bali win 1-0 at Madura's ground.

Madura United U20 vs Bali United Pusam U20 Prediction & Win Probability

We calculate the win probability using bookmaker odds, recent form, and the lopsided H2H. The average implied probability from three bookmakers (after removing the margin) gave Madura United U20 18.4%, a draw 33.7%, and Bali United Pusam U20 47.9%. However, the 7-0 head-to-head advantage for Bali and their superior form lead us to adjust these figures. Madura United U20 has a 15% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and Bali United Pusam U20 has a 60% chance. The visitors are clearly the more likely winners.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers have priced Bali United Pusam U20 as the favorite. The best available odds for an away win are as low as 1.57, while a home win can be backed at up to 5.25. The draw is offered between 2.25 and 3.90. These odds reflect the gap between the sides. Based on the stats, our prediction is an away win for Bali United Pusam U20. The most probable correct score is 0-1 or 0-2, given Madura's scoring struggles and Bali's defensive solidity in recent H2H matches.