Magallanes - Puerto Montt prediction 13 September 2026

Our Magallanes vs Puerto Montt prediction gives the home side a 45% chance of winning this Primera B clash on September 13, 2026, with kick-off at 15:30. Bookmakers also see Magallanes as the favourite at 1.88 odds, while Puerto Montt is priced at 3.85. Based on recent form, head-to-head trends, and league standings, the most likely outcome is a home victory, but the draw holds significant value at 30% probability.

Team Form

Magallanes come into this match with two wins, two draws, and one defeat from their last five outings. They were held to a 0-0 draw at home by Union San Felipe, lost 2-1 away to leaders Santiago Wanderers, then beat Deportes Santa Cruz 1-0 at home, won 3-2 at Rangers de Talca, and drew 2-2 with Cobreloa. The team has scored six goals in this spell and remains dangerous in attack, but defensive lapses have prevented more wins.

Puerto Montt's form is a concern — just one win, one draw, and three losses in the same window. They edged Curico Unido 2-0 at home, but then lost 3-1 at Deportes Temuco, were crushed 0-4 at home by Deportes Iquique, drew 1-1 at Santiago Wanderers, and lost 0-1 at home to Union Espanola. Away from home they have failed to keep a clean sheet in three of their last four, managing only a single draw.

Head-to-Head Record

Historically, these sides have met 17 times: Magallanes won 3, drew 9, and Puerto Montt won 5. Draws dominate the H2H record at more than 50% of the meetings. The last five encounters include a 2-0 Puerto Montt home win in May 2026, a 1-0 Puerto Montt home win in July 2022, a 2-0 Magallanes home win in February 2022, a 3-0 Magallanes home win in September 2021, and a 1-1 draw in May 2021. Noticeably, both home wins for Magallanes were comfortable, while Puerto Montt's wins have been by narrow margins at their own ground.

League Table Positions

In the overall Primera B standings, Magallanes are 5th with 36 points from 23 matches (10 wins, 6 draws, 7 losses). Puerto Montt sit 8th with 34 points (10 wins, 4 draws, 9 losses). The gap is just two points, but the visitors' negative goal difference (-2) contrasts with Magallanes' +1. At home, Magallanes rank outside the top eight in the dedicated home table (not shown), but their away form is strong — Magallanes are 2nd in the away table with 18 points from 12 away games. Puerto Montt's home record is solid (5th in home standings), but as the away side here they struggle — only one win in their last five on the road.

Win Probability: Magallanes or Puerto Montt?

After removing the bookmaker margin from 1X2 odds (home 1.88, draw 3.25, away 3.85), the implied probabilities are roughly 48.4% for a Magallanes win, 28.0% for the draw, and 23.6% for a Puerto Montt away win. Adjusting for team form and the high draw frequency in direct encounters, our weighted model sets the chances at: Magallanes win — 45%, draw — 30%, Puerto Montt win — 25%. The draw is a real threat given nine of 17 H2H clashes have finished level. Still, Magallanes' better overall standing and home advantage tilt the balance in their favour, so they maintain the highest probability of victory.

Odds & Match Prediction

The latest prematch odds show Magallanes at 1.88 to win, a draw at 3.25, and an away victory for Puerto Montt at 3.85. These odds reflect the home side's favourite status, but the value may lie in the draw market when you consider the long history of stalemates between these clubs. Our prediction: based on the stats, Magallanes are the more likely winner, but a score draw cannot be ruled out. A 1-0 or 2-1 home win looks the most probable correct score scenario.