Alaves - Malaga prediction 23 October 2026

The Malaga vs Alaves prediction for their Primera clash on October 23, 2026, at Estadio de Mendizorroza points to a home win. Alaves enters the match as the clear favorite with a 50% win probability, while Malaga faces an uphill battle at just 20%.

Team Form

Alaves comes into this fixture in poor overall shape, having lost four of their last five league matches (L, L, D, L, L). Their most recent outing was a 2-1 defeat at Celta Vigo on October 18. At home, however, they have been more resilient, winning three of five at Mendizorroza this season.

Malaga’s recent form is equally concerning: L, D, L, L, D in their last five. They suffered a heavy 5-2 home loss to Real Sociedad on October 18 and have managed just two draws in that stretch. Away from home, they have struggled, failing to appear in the top eight of the away standings.

Head-to-Head Record

The historical head-to-head record heavily favors Alaves. In nine previous meetings across all competitions, Alaves has won seven, with no draws and two Malaga victories. The most recent encounters:

• May 20, 2023 (Segunda): Alaves 2-1 Malaga
• Dec 18, 2022 (Segunda): Malaga 1-0 Alaves
• May 6, 2018 (Primera): Malaga 0-3 Alaves

Alaves has won two of the last three, including a dominant 3-0 away win in the top flight.

League Table Positions

Alaves sits 7th in the Primera table with 11 points from 9 matches (3W, 2D, 4L). They have scored 13 goals and conceded 10. At home, they are 5th with 9 points from 5 games (3W, 0D, 2L), highlighting their strength at Mendizorroza.

Malaga is not listed in the top 12 of the overall standings, indicating a position in the lower half of the table. Their away form is also unranked in the top eight, suggesting they have picked up few points on the road.

Win Probability: Malaga or Alaves?

Based on the available data—odds, recent form, head-to-head record, and league positions—we calculate the following win probabilities for this match:

• Alaves win: 50%
• Draw: 30%
• Malaga win: 20%

Alaves’ strong home record (3 wins in 5) and dominant H2H history (7 wins in 9 meetings) give them a significant edge. Malaga’s poor away form and low league position reduce their chances, though a draw remains a realistic possibility given both teams’ recent struggles.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ pre-match odds reflect Alaves as the favorite. The best available odds are:

• Alaves win: 1.80
• Draw: 2.28
• Malaga win: 5.60

These odds imply a home win probability of around 47% after removing the margin, which aligns closely with our adjusted 50% assessment. Based on the stats, Alaves is the more likely winner, but Malaga could snatch a draw if they improve defensively. Our final Malaga vs Alaves prediction: Alaves to win.