Leganes - Mallorca prediction 24 October 2026

The Leganes vs Mallorca prediction for this Segunda clash on October 24, 2026, at Estadio Municipal de Butarque points to a tight contest. Based on available data, Mallorca enters as the slight favorite with a 42% win probability, while Leganes has a 31% chance and the draw is at 27%.

Team Form

Leganes is in poor form, having lost four of their last five matches. They suffered defeats against Cordoba CF (0-1), Almeria (0-3), Cadiz (0-4), and Castellon (0-2), with their only win coming at home against Granada CF (3-2) on September 20. The team has struggled defensively, conceding ten goals in these five games.

Mallorca shows more consistent results with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five outings. They drew against Eibar (1-1) and Girona (0-0), beat Las Palmas (3-1) and Real Sociedad B (1-0), and lost to Almeria (0-1). Mallorca has kept three clean sheets in this period, highlighting their defensive solidity.

Head-to-Head Record

The last five meetings between these sides are evenly balanced. The record stands at 2 wins for Leganes, 2 wins for Mallorca, and 2 draws. Their most recent encounter, on April 19, 2025, in the Primera, ended in a 0-0 draw. Leganes won the home fixture in October 2019 (1-0), while Mallorca took a 1-0 victory at Leganes in December 2020. The history suggests a close match with no clear dominant side.

League Table Positions

Mallorca sits 6th in the Segunda standings with 18 points from 10 matches (5 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses), scoring 12 goals and conceding only 5. Their goal difference of +7 is the second-best in the league. Leganes' ranking is not available in the provided table, but their recent form suggests a position in the lower half. Mallorca has a strong home record in the general home standings (4th place with 12 points from 5 games), but they are playing away here.

Win Probability: Leganes or Mallorca?

Calculating the win probability based on the inverse of the available odds, normalized and adjusted for form and head-to-head records, gives the following percentages. Mallorca has a 42% chance of winning, Leganes has a 31% chance, and the draw is at 27%. Mallorca's better recent form, strong defensive record, and higher league position make them the more likely winner, but playing away and the balanced H2H record lower their edge. Leganes' home advantage at the Estadio Municipal de Butarque keeps them within striking distance.

Odds & Match Prediction

The odds for the 1X2 market show a tight match. Bookmakers offer an average home win price around 3.12, a draw at 2.34, and an away win for Mallorca near 2.69. The draw is the shortest price across several bookmakers, indicating the market sees this as a very even contest. Based on the stats, a low-scoring draw or a narrow Mallorca win are the most likely outcomes. The prediction is Mallorca to have the better chances, but a draw is a strong possibility.