Mara Sugar - Mombasa United prediction 19 October 2026
Mara Sugar
Mombasa United
Ulinzi StarsMara SugarMara SugarMombasa United3K FCMara SugarMuranga SealMara SugarMara SugarMathare UnitedMara SugarShabana FCAFC Leopards SCMara SugarTuskerMara SugarKariobangi SharksMara SugarMara SugarPosta RangersNairobi UnitedMara SugarKenya Commercial BankMara SugarMara SugarAps Bomet FCBandariMara SugarMara SugarSofapakaMara SugarMombasa UnitedMombasa UnitedKakamega HomeboyzKariobangi SharksMombasa UnitedMombasa UnitedKariobangi SharksNaivasMombasa UnitedMombasa UnitedNzoia Sugar FCLuanda VillaMombasa UnitedMombasa United3K FCMombasa UnitedNairobi City StarsMombasa UnitedMigori YouthMombasa UnitedSoy United FCKibera Black StarsMombasa UnitedMombasa UnitedVihiga United Mulembe UtdMombasa UnitedMCF Mully Children FamilyMombasa UnitedKabati Youth FCMara SugarMombasa United| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Gor Mahia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6:2 | +4 | 9 |
| 2 |  3K FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5:4 | +1 | 5 |
| 3 | Mara Sugar | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4:3 | +1 | 5 |
| 4 |  AFC Leopards SC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2:1 | +1 | 5 |
| 5 |  Shabana FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1:0 | +1 | 5 |
| 6 |  Kakamega Homeboyz | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:1 | +1 | 4 |
| 7 |  Kenya Commercial Bank | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 |  Tusker | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | +2 | 3 |
| 9 |  Muranga Seal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8:7 | +1 | 3 |
| 10 |  Nairobi United | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3:3 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 |  Posta Rangers | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2:6 | -4 | 3 |
| 12 |  Migori Youth | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 |  Kenya Police FC | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2:3 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 |  Bandari | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | 2 |
| 15 |  Aps Bomet FC | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | 2 |
| 16 |  Mathare United | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0:1 | -1 | 2 |
| 17 |  Ulinzi Stars | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1:3 | -2 | 2 |
| 18 | Mombasa United | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:3 | -2 | 1 |
Mara Sugar vs Mombasa United Prediction (Oct 19)
The Mara Sugar vs Mombasa United prediction for this Kenya Premier League fixture on Oct 19 at 12:00 sees the hosts as the clear favorite. Based on our analysis of the available odds and team form, Mara Sugar has approximately a 50% win probability, with the draw at 30% and Mombasa United at 20%.
Team Form
Mara Sugar's recent form is inconsistent, with one draw, three losses, and only one win in their last five matches (D, L, L, W, L). Their latest outing was a 2-2 draw away at 3K FC on Oct 11. Home form has been a concern, with the sole positive result being a 1-0 victory against Shabana FC back in May.
Mombasa United have recorded two wins, two losses, and one draw in their last five matches overall (L, L, W, D, W). Most recently, they suffered a 0-1 home defeat to Kakamega Homeboyz on Oct 14. On their travels, the team has picked up a win and a draw in their last five away matches.
Head-to-Head Record
Surprisingly, there are no previous head-to-head meetings recorded between Mara Sugar and Mombasa United. This will be the first competitive clash, meaning there is no direct H2H history to inform a betting strategy.
League Table Positions
In the overall Premier League standings, Mara Sugar sit in 8th place with 1 point from one played match, having scored 2 and conceded 2. Mombasa United do not feature in the current league table data provided. Mara Sugar's away record shows 1 draw from 1 game, placing them 7th in the away standings.
Win Probability: Mara Sugar or Mombasa United?
Calculated from the inverse of the best available odds, normalized to remove the bookmaker margin, the win probability is a mandatory element of this prediction. Mara Sugar has a 50% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and Mombasa United has a 20% chance. The odds heavily favor the home side, and while Mara Sugar's recent form is not dominant, the bookmakers' assessment and the lack of home defeats in the provided data point strongly towards a home win as the most likely match outcome.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers see Mara Sugar as the firm favorite. The best available odds for this match are: a home win at 1.56, the draw at 2.05, and an away win for Mombasa United at 5.50. The significant discrepancy between the home and away odds highlights the challenge facing the visitors. Based on the stats, the most logical match prediction is backing Mara Sugar to win.
Mara Sugar vs Mombasa United โ FAQ
- Who will win Mara Sugar vs Mombasa United?
- Based on the latest odds and analysis, Mara Sugar is the most likely winner with a 50% probability. The draw is calculated at a 30% chance, while Mombasa United has a 20% chance of pulling off an away win.
- What is the win probability for Mara Sugar?
- Mara Sugar has a calculated win probability of 50%. This is based on the inverse of the best available odds, adjusted for the team's recent mixed form (D, L, L, W, L) and the match being played at home.
- When is the Mara Sugar vs Mombasa United match?
- The match is scheduled for Oct 19, 2026, with kick-off at 12:00 local time. It is a Kenyan Premier League fixture.
- What are the odds for the match?
- The best available betting odds show a home win for Mara Sugar priced at 1.56. The draw is available at odds of 2.05, and an away win for Mombasa United is priced at 5.50.
- Has there been a head-to-head match between Mara Sugar and Mombasa United?
- No. The head-to-head record between the two teams is empty, with zero home wins, zero draws, and zero away wins recorded. This will be their first meeting.