Nairobi United - Mara Sugar prediction 9 November 2026
Nairobi United
Mara SugarNairobi United
Aps Bomet FCShabana FCNairobi UnitedNairobi UnitedKenya Commercial BankNairobi UnitedAps Bomet FCNairobi UnitedKenya Commercial BankNairobi UnitedKenya Commercial BankGor MahiaNairobi UnitedNairobi UnitedKenya Police FCNairobi UnitedPosta RangersKariobangi SharksNairobi UnitedNairobi UnitedTuskerNairobi UnitedKenya Commercial BankMathare UnitedNairobi UnitedMuranga SealNairobi UnitedPosta RangersNairobi UnitedUlinzi StarsMara SugarMara SugarMombasa United3K FCMara SugarMuranga SealMara SugarMara SugarMathare UnitedMara SugarShabana FCAFC Leopards SCMara SugarTuskerMara SugarKariobangi SharksMara SugarMara SugarPosta RangersNairobi UnitedMara SugarKenya Commercial BankMara SugarMara SugarAps Bomet FCBandariMara SugarMara SugarSofapaka| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.22 | 2.82 | 3.15 |
Nairobi UnitedMara SugarNairobi UnitedMara SugarNairobi UnitedMara SugarNairobi UnitedMara SugarNairobi UnitedMara Sugar| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Gor Mahia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6:2 | +4 | 9 |
| 2 |  3K FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5:4 | +1 | 5 |
| 3 | Mara Sugar | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4:3 | +1 | 5 |
| 4 |  AFC Leopards SC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2:1 | +1 | 5 |
| 5 |  Shabana FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1:0 | +1 | 5 |
| 6 |  Kakamega Homeboyz | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:1 | +1 | 4 |
| 7 |  Kenya Commercial Bank | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 |  Tusker | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | +2 | 3 |
| 9 |  Muranga Seal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8:7 | +1 | 3 |
| 10 | Nairobi United | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3:3 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 |  Posta Rangers | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2:6 | -4 | 3 |
| 12 |  Migori Youth | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 |  Kenya Police FC | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2:3 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 |  Bandari | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | 2 |
| 15 |  Aps Bomet FC | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | 2 |
| 16 |  Mathare United | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0:1 | -1 | 2 |
| 17 |  Ulinzi Stars | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1:3 | -2 | 2 |
| 18 |  Mombasa United | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:3 | -2 | 1 |
Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar Prediction (Oct 23)
The Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar prediction points toward a tight, low-scoring encounter when the two sides meet in the Kenya Premier League on Oct 23 at 12:00. Based on the available stats and head-to-head record, Nairobi United enter the match as marginal favorites with a 43% win probability, partly due to home advantage, while a draw looks a very realistic outcome at 37%. Mara Sugarโs chances are estimated at 20%.
Team Form
Recent form provides little to separate these two sides. Nairobi United have drawn their last five matches in all competitions: 0-0 at Shabana FC, 2-2 at home against Kenya Commercial Bank, and three consecutive 0-0 stalemates with Aps Bomet FC and Kenya Commercial Bank (twice). Mara Sugarโs form is mixed but trending slightly upward: they played out a 2-2 draw at 3K FC on Oct 11, following a run of three defeats (2-1 losses to Muranga Seal and AFC Leopards SC, plus a 1-0 home loss to Mathare United) and a 1-0 home win over Shabana FC.
Head-to-Head Record
The H2H record heavily favors one outcome: the draw. In their last five meetings, four have ended level (all 1-1 or 0-0 scorelines in Premier League and Cup fixtures). The single exception was a 2-0 away win for Mara Sugar back in December 2023. Nairobi United have yet to beat Mara Sugar in any of the recorded matches, with 30% of H2Hs ending in away wins and 70% finishing as draws.
League Table Positions
In the early Kenya Premier League standings, Nairobi United sit 7th overall with 2 points from 2 drawn matches (2 goals scored, 2 conceded). Mara Sugar are just behind in 8th place with 1 point from their single away fixture, a 2-2 draw, giving them an identical goals for/against record. At home, Nairobi United rank 6th; Mara Sugar sit 7th in the away table, mirroring their overall parity.
Win Probability: Nairobi United or Mara Sugar?
The win probability analysis uses the available 1X2 odds to set a baseline, adjusted by form, H2H dominance of draws, and home/away standings. Bookmakers set home odds at 2.22, draw at 2.82, and away at 3.15. After removing the bookmaker margin, the implied probabilities are adjusted by factoring in Nairobi Unitedโs draw-heavy form and the 70% H2H draw rate. The calculation yields: Nairobi United win: 43%, Draw: 37%, Mara Sugar win: 20%. This confirms a slight edge for the hosts, but a draw remains the second most likely outcome by a considerable distance.
Odds & Match Prediction
Current bookmaker odds via _1X2 market show Nairobi United at 2.22, the draw at 2.82, and Mara Sugar at 3.15. The pricing reflects the hostโs marginal favoritism and the pronounced draw bias in this fixture. Match prediction: based on the stats, bookmakers see Nairobi United as the favorite, but a draw is a very strong possibility. Given both teamsโ identical defensive records and the H2H trend, the most sensible betting tip could be a low-scoring draw or a narrow home win.
Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar โ FAQ
- Who will win Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar?
- Nairobi United are the slight favorites with a 43% chance of winning. A draw is nearly as likely at 37%, while Mara Sugar have only a 20% win probability, according to odds, form, and head-to-head record analysis.
- What is the win probability for Nairobi United?
- Nairobi United have a 43% probability of winning. This is based on the 1X2 odds (home 2.22), their draw-heavy recent form, and the strong 70% draw trend in the head-to-head record.
- When is the Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar match?
- The match is scheduled for Oct 23 at 12:00. It is a Kenya Premier League fixture.
- What are the odds for the match?
- The current 1X2 odds are: Nairobi United home win at 2.22, the draw at 2.82, and a Mara Sugar away win at 3.15.
- What is the head-to-head record between Nairobi United and Mara Sugar?
- In five previous meetings, four ended in draws (including three 0-0 scorelines and one 1-1), and Mara Sugar won once (2-0 in December 2023). Nairobi United have no wins in the head-to-head series.