Mariehamn - Ilves prediction 10 October 2026
Mariehamn
Ilves
JaroMariehamnMariehamnIlvesSeinajoen JKMariehamnMariehamnTPS TurkuLahtiMariehamnMariehamnJaroKuPSMariehamnMariehamnSeinajoen JKIlvesMariehamnTPS TurkuMariehamnMariehamnAC OuluMariehamnLahtiGnistanMariehamnVPS VaasaMariehamnMariehamnInter TurkuIlvesSeinajoen JKMariehamnIlvesTPS TurkuIlvesIlvesLahtiIlvesJaroIlvesHJK HelsinkiIlvesVPS VaasaGnistanIlvesIlvesRijekaIlvesMariehamnRijekaIlvesAC OuluIlvesIlvesStjarnanIlvesLahtiStjarnanIlves- 7A. LarssonF
- 2N. NurmiD
- 20E. PatutM
- 5T. KoivistoD
- 18A. StroudD
- 27L. RichtnรฉrM
- 1K. LundG
- 16A. HuttunenM
- 23V. WidlundM
- 31Samson NgulubeD
- 14Arvid BergvikM
- 19T. Jakobsen
- 64M. Hyvรถnen
- 43L. Andersson
- 3A. Soiniemi
- 12O. Heino
- 9W. Nuรฑez
- 11J. Svedberg
- 26M. Jansson
- 3M. RaleD
- 12F. KrkaliฤG
- 13K. WalliusF
- 9T. HytรถnenF
- 5S. VรคisรคnenD
- 28J. KiloM
- 22O. MultalaM
- 45E. TamminenF
- 24V. KumpuD
- 14A. PopovitchM
- 19Goudouss BambaM
- 8M. Stjopin
- 17S. Baranov
- 6Y. Raap
- 16T. Miettunen
- 31R. Leislahti
- 42Y. Sacko
- 11H. Coulibaly
MariehamnIlvesIlvesMariehamnMariehamnIlvesIlvesMariehamnMariehamnIlvesIlvesMariehamnIlvesMariehamnMariehamnIlvesIlvesMariehamnIlvesMariehamnMariehamnIlvesIlvesMariehamnIlvesMariehamnIlvesMariehamnIlvesMariehamnMariehamnIlvesMariehamnIlvesIlvesMariehamnMariehamnIlvesIlvesMariehamnMariehamnIlvesMariehamnIlvesMariehamnIlvesMariehamnIlvesIlvesMariehamnMariehamnIlvesMariehamnIlvesIlvesMariehamnIlvesMariehamnIlvesMariehamnMariehamnIlvesMariehamnIlvesMariehamnIlvesMariehamnIlvesMariehamnIlvesMariehamnIlvesMariehamnIlvesMariehamnIlvesIlvesMariehamn| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  KuPS | 22 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 38:23 | +15 | 43 |
| 2 |  Inter Turku | 22 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 29:16 | +13 | 42 |
| 3 |  HJK Helsinki | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 36:27 | +9 | 37 |
| 4 |  Gnistan | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 36:29 | +7 | 36 |
| 5 |  AC Oulu | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 25:25 | 0 | 34 |
| 6 |  VPS Vaasa | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 29:22 | +7 | 33 |
| 7 |  Lahti | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 26:19 | +7 | 32 |
| 8 |  TPS Turku | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 28:23 | +5 | 31 |
| 9 | Ilves | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 34:37 | -3 | 25 |
| 10 |  Seinajoen JK | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 25:33 | -8 | 19 |
| 11 |  Jaro | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 18:44 | -26 | 15 |
| 12 | Mariehamn | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 17:43 | -26 | 14 |
Mariehamn vs Ilves Prediction (Oct 10)
The Mariehamn vs Ilves prediction for this Veikkausliiga fixture on Oct 10, 2026, points to a closely contested match with Ilves holding a slight edge. Based on the latest odds, head-to-head record, and league standings, Ilves has a 40% win probability, while Mariehamn sits at 28% and the draw at 32%. The match kicks off at 17:00 local time at Mariehamn's home ground.
Team Form
Mariehamn's recent form shows three wins and two losses in their last five outings (L-W-L-W-W). They secured a 1-0 home victory over TPS Turku and a 2-0 win against Jaro, but fell 2-1 to both Seinajoen JK and Lahti. Notably, they stunned league leaders KuPS 4-2 away on Aug 23. Ilves, meanwhile, started their last five with three straight wins โ 3-0 at TPS Turku, 3-1 at home to Lahti, and 2-0 against Jaro โ before back-to-back defeats to HJK Helsinki (1-2) and VPS Vaasa (0-1). Both sides have been inconsistent, but Ilves' victories came against mid-table opponents, while Mariehamn's wins were against teams in the lower half, except for the KuPS upset.
Head-to-Head Record
The head-to-head record heavily favors Ilves. In 38 meetings, Ilves has won 18 times, Mariehamn 13, with 7 draws. The last five encounters tell a similar story: Ilves won 2-0 in August 2026, drew 2-2 in April 2026, and won 2-1 in August 2025. Mariehamn's lone recent success was a 3-2 home win in April 2025. Ilves has kept clean sheets in two of the last three H2H matches, highlighting their defensive edge in this matchup.
League Table Positions
Mariehamn sits bottom of the Veikkausliiga with 14 points from 22 games (3 wins, 5 draws, 14 losses). They have scored just 17 goals while conceding 43, the worst defensive record in the league. Ilves is 9th with 25 points (7 wins, 4 draws, 11 losses) and a goal difference of -3. The 11-point gap underscores Ilves' superior consistency, though their away form has been patchy โ they are not among the top eight away sides. Mariehamn's home record is also not listed in the top eight, suggesting both teams struggle for dominance in their respective home/away splits.
Win Probability: Mariehamn or Ilves?
After normalizing bookmaker odds and adjusting for form, H2H, and table positions, the win probabilities are: Mariehamn 28%, draw 32%, Ilves 40%. The odds imply a tight contest, but Ilves' historical advantage and higher league standing tip the scales. Mariehamn's home factor and recent giant-killing act against KuPS keep them within striking distance, yet Ilves' three-match winning streak before facing top sides shows they can dispatch weaker opponents. The draw remains a strong possibility given both teams' inconsistent runs.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers see Ilves as the marginal favorite. Current odds show a Mariehamn home win at 3.00, the draw at 2.40, and an Ilves away win at 2.35. These prices reflect the away side's better overall record and H2H dominance. Based on the stats, the most likely outcome is an Ilves victory, but the value may lie in the draw given the 32% probability. Our Mariehamn vs Ilves prediction: Ilves to win, but expect a tight affair with under 2.5 total goals.
Mariehamn vs Ilves โ FAQ
- Who will win Mariehamn vs Ilves?
- Ilves is the more likely winner with a 40% chance, compared to Mariehamn's 28% and a 32% probability of a draw. This is based on Ilves' superior head-to-head record (18 wins in 38 meetings), higher league position (9th vs 12th), and bookmaker odds that price them as favorites.
- What is the win probability for Ilves?
- Ilves has a 40% win probability for this Veikkausliiga match. The calculation starts from the inverse of average odds (around 2.44 for an away win) and adjusts for their better H2H record and 11-point lead over Mariehamn in the standings.
- When is the Mariehamn vs Ilves match?
- The match takes place on Oct 10, 2026, at 17:00 local time (GMT+1). It is a Veikkausliiga fixture, Finland's top football division.
- What are the odds for the match?
- As of now, bookmakers offer odds around 3.00 for a Mariehamn home win, 2.40 for the draw, and 2.35 for an Ilves away victory. These odds vary slightly across bookies, with some listing the home win as high as 3.00 and the away win as low as 2.26.